Churchill: Closer Looks for April 30, 2014

Race 1

Bamboneo

Comes here sharp as a tack; won big over $10K maidens at PRX a year ago and was claimed, too; you had to be worried, though, when he wasn't seen for 10 months but he came back at OP Feb. 20 and romped for $16K, wasn't claimed, the won again there WITHOUT a tag attached April 9; nice to see no layoff since and again he's not offered for a tag; it's his first time here but he's handled PRX slop, PRX dry land and OP dry land so odds are he'll handled this place.

Lungs

Not only looked good easily winning at MNR March 11 but that run was flattered as 2 he beat that day came right back to win; hasn't run since, which is a tad disconcerting, but hey, he'd been busy since last summer so he was due for a break; nice to see him return without a tag attached and he ran 2nd the only other time he ran here so he doesn't mind this place; Sarvis was up for that big win at MNR last time and comes with him to keep the mount, which is encouraging.

Crown's Path

Claimed in his last 4 straight races so more than a few people like what they see; romped on OP dry land March 15 after 5 months off, then was 2nd to a runaway winner for $12,500 (claimed) in slop there March 28; handles any type of footing and it's nice to see that off the claim Moquett brings him back in a spot where he can't lose him via another claim; only prior local start wasn't much (ran 5th)but he comes here sharper than he did that day.

Froggyville

Been a pro for a while - hey, you don't win 10 times by accident; that includes going 1 for 3 here; comes off a string of good outings at OP this winter/spring where he was knocking on the door vs. similar; lack of speed is his main buggaboo as he often leaves himself too much to do but he comes here sharper than he's been in some time and note his career-top Beyer (91) came on this track last summer.

Katz My Song

2nd in a tough optional claimer at GP last time out April 6; that being said, he was no real threat in the lane as after pressing the pace he weakened and was beaten quite a ways by a runaway winner (10 1/4 lengths); ran 3rd in only local prior start and it's nice to see that while Stevens claimed him for a measly $6,250 Dec. 27 he keeps him in a spot where he can't lose him via another claim; ample tactical speed to be in a good spot from the start.-Michael Hammersly

Race 4

Demure Halo

She obviously loves this surface with three wins from four starts and maybe the surface switch will help get her back on track; seems like a bit of an underlay at 2-1 considering she hasn't come close in any of here three races this year, though; the drop won't hurt and she won here last year coming off a poor perfomance on turf; we won't argue with anyone heading in this direction but we are going to try and beat him.

Perfect Praise

Another one coming off a couple of dull efforts but she is taking a substantial drop and she could be ready for an improved effort in the third start of her current form cycle; the past five years Romans has an 18 percent strike rate with horses cutting their value by 50 percent or more and note the strong turf to dirt numbers he's put up lately; some things to like.

Lady Spencer

5-year-old has decent speed but she didn't carry it very far in her latest at Keeneland; it was her first try on Poly and it is certainly possible she didn't care for it; horse she beat in an $8K n/w/3 in her previous race at Tampa won her next start for the same condition with a 42 Beyer Speed Figure; this is obviously a tougher group and she will have to deal with other speed; prefer others.

Queen of Scioto

The 7-time winner is coming off a decent effort in her first start of the year and it is easy to imagine her taking a big step forward with a race behind her; the winner came right back to win a $12K starter race at Hawthorne with an 81 Beyer Speed Figure; this gal has a solid record over this track and should get a nice trip from a stalking position; the pick.

Bonita Muneca

Just three wins in her 35-race career is a concern but she is coming off a decent effort at this level at Keeneland April 10 and she has a decent record running over this track; the Beyer Speed Figure did come in a bit light in her latest but she is eligible to move forward in her second start back; hard to love her on top but there will be speed coming back to her and can see her picking up a slice.

Cherokee Callie

4-year-old filly has won a third of her starts and it looks like she fits with these with a couple of wins at Turway for $12.5; her last two aren't very encouraging though, none of her five wins have come on dirt; on a positive note her trainer has solid stats with horses making their second start following a layoff; leaning in other directions.-Randy Goulding

Race 5

C P Hath a Way

Good news is she comes out of a strong heat (produced 3 next-out winners) March 22; bad news is that came on turf at FG - we're on different footing completely today; at least was 2nd the last time she raced here Nov. 20, and it came for twice this tag and with Lanerie aboard so he knows here; that March 22 did represent a step forward after a dull run and today's drop may help get her back on track.

Rowdy Miss

Led all the way to gamely 'win' for $16K at this type of trip at GP March 28 but she failed to stay straight in the lane and that got her DQ'd to 2nd; still, she ran pretty darn well so she comes here in solid form; ran well here in the fall, too, and that speed should have her in the mix from the start.

Go Kitten Go

Things didn't go so well much of 2013 but then came a super win for $5K at TP Dec. 31, she was claimed, resurfaced there Feb. 28 and was a sharp 2nd and was then a nice 3rd there March 29; of course, that's synthetic and we're playing on dirt today but she remains in well above her claimed level (3 times as much, as a matter of fact) and did run well on this track Nov. 20 when 3rd for $20K.

Bold Annie

Looked good rallying past N2L foes for this price at TP Jan. 31 but her last 2 weren't very pretty - was no factor on TP's synthetic March 15 and no factor in the mud at MNR April 15; moves down in class and maybe that can help; did run 3rd in her only local start but that came vs. restricted (N2L) foes (facing open rivals today) and she was no real threat (beaten 5 1/2 lengths).

Valentine City

Won 2 of last 3 and the one loss came when she was facing considerably tougher at TP Jan. 3; of course, both wins and 2 of her 3 2nds and have come on synthetic so there's a surface issue today; at least ran 3rd in her only local start but even that wasn't any great shakes as she was far back early and no factor in the lane as she was beaten 6 3/4 lengths.

Shoes for Jlo

Very nice win when last seen and it came for half this tag so being doubled in value is most encouraging; that being said, not only is she doubled in value, meaning she's facing tougher, she that win at TP came on synthetic, so we're on dirt today, came vs. N2L foes (facing tougher restricted here) and was over 2 months ago so there's a layoff to ponder; only local start came in Nov. 27 and she was a non-threatening 4th (beaten 7 1/4 lengths).

Southern Symphony

Wasn't disgraced in her last 2 at OP (4th, 5th) but she as no real factor in those 2 either; in her defense, they came vs. slightly tougher so she's down in class today; best work has come on dirt so that gives her a leg-up over some of these, Santana Jr. stays with her and she handled this track well last spring.

Something Blue

Tough loss vs. N2L foes for this price at FG March 14; was then 3rd vs. tougher on KEE's Polytrack April 9 but let's face it - she was no real factor (beaten 12 1/2 lengths); has her value cut in half today and is back to dirt, both of which may help; has some versatility, too, and remember her maiden win last Oct. 30 came over THIS track, albeit in the slop.-Michael Hammersly

Race 6

Follow the Kitten

Lightly-raced 4-year-old comes off a solid effort behind a debuting 3-year-old filly who ran a huge race when she came back in a first-level allowance race going 1 1/8 miles on the turf at Keeneland- fourth despite blowing the start and she earned an 80 Beyer Speed Figure; this gal is an obvious contender and the only concern is her history of blowing a lot of money as the chalk in three of her four races.

St Cecilia

Adds Lasix following an improved effort at Mountaineer in her second start and she is eligible to improve with a couple of races behind her; the 35 Beyer Speed Figure she earned comes in pretty light, though; half to 6-time winner and $99K earner Scored will need to pick things up to contend here; prefer others.

Infliction

She owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field and she earned it running over this surface at this level; toss her latest as she was coming off a layoff and she never really got to run her race as she was buried on the rail early and lacked running room in the stretch; second start back could be a good one and she'll appreciate the drop back to the level was competitve at last year; the pick.

Lucky Eight

3-year-old filly ships in from Oaklawn where she flashed decent speed in all three of her starts; she figures to be involved right from the start again but not sure how long she'll stick around; she held on well two back but then faded when she tried straight maidens in her latest and there is other speed signed on here; looking in other directions.

Dixie Fiction

Back to dirt where she has done her best work and her best race came when she came from well back in her initial start this year; drops in for a tag for the first time and there should be speed coming back to her; if Davis can get her to settle early she might be heard from late; consider for the exotics.

Lightning Angel

She is taking the plunge into a maiden claimer for the first time and considering she was coming off a lengthy layoff that wasn't a bad effort in her latest at Keeneland; both older sibs are mutlple winners the best being $248K Grade 3 placed Sonja's Angel; another one that likes to be involved early; can see her hanging around long enough to pick up a slice.

Indian Conduct

Six of her seven sibs are winners including Impeachment who finished third in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness; she didn't attract a lot of support in her debut in a key race at the Fairgrounds and then she didn't show much after getting off to a poor start; the past five years Stewart has an 11 percent strike rate with second time starters dropping into a maiden claimer; others look more attractive.

Amanda Devi

Second half of the Zayat entry makes her first start for Roman who the past five years has a 13 percent strike rate with horses debuting in maiden claiming races; sire is 0/10 with first timers; dam was unraced but all three of her previous foals are winners the best being $170K Biddy; she had a decent work here April 19 but why the big gap between her last two works?-Randy Goulding

Race 7

Glorys Last Chance

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and dam was winless from 15 starts, including eight starts over turf; this filly is a 1/2 to Pony Corner (3-21, 50k, including 1 of 4 turf starts for 12k); her pedigree isn't exactly crying out for turf, and it isn't like this is a soft spot for her first turf test.

Zadina

This looks like it can prove to be a difficult assignment for her first start since November, but she has been at her best racing over this turf course in the past; perhaps a spot underneath in the exotics is within reach, but looking toward others for the top spot.

Dance Again

Stakes winning miss was on top of her game when last seen and it doesn't hurt to see that a couple of her better starts have been after a layoff; she was last seen earning a G2 stakes placing over this turf course and her recent workouts suggest that she's ready for her return to action.

On the Same Page

Her better races have been run over dirt and she's really going to need to step it up over what she's shown in her five turf attempts if she's planning on pressuring the top contenders in here; Graham has won with 11 of 30 (37%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Sky Treasure

There is a long layoff in play, but she hasn't run a bad race to date, and she just missed a G3 stakes placing in her latest outing; winner from latest won next out at WO on 9/21 going 1 1/16m in a 128k stakes with a 91 Beyer and third-place finisher won next out at GP on 3/26 going 1m over turf in a 100k OPC with a 93 Beyer; Elliott has won with 8 of 29 (28%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Catbird Seat

Her two most recent races have been winning performances but she's going to need to be ready to take her game to another level if she's to make this her third straight victory; runner up from latest won next out via DQ at Tam in a 75k stakes going 1 1/16m over turf with a 74 Beyer.

She's Not Lazy

Like the improvement she showed in two starts last Summer, but she's needed to take a lot of time off along the way, and she enters this race off of a long layoff; third-place finisher from latest won next out at Bel on 9/8 going 1m over turf vs. N1X rivals with an 87 Beyer.

Sassy Kitten

Two of her three turf starts have been solid winning performances and there's a chance that this lightly raced miss still has more to show us; she shows up for Ramsey and Maker, and Leparoux has won with 8 of 31 (26%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Rosee Is Cozee

To this point in her career, she's been at her best racing over a synthetic surface, and she's going to need to show up with the strongest performance of her career in order to get the better of the top contenders in this one.

Praia

Although the outside post isn't ideal, this multiple graded stakes placed filly may very well prove to be the one to deny in this spot, and she looks like she's primed for a top try after a sharp start after a layoff in her latest outing; this barn has been going well lately.

Heart of Destiny

She needs to see a scratch from the main body of the race in order to draw in it looks like they tried to tighten the screws on this G1 stakes placed miss in her most recent workout; she's worth keeping an eye out for if she gets to go.

Gigglin' Gal

She might benefit from a lot of scratches if this race has to be taken off the turf, but her best effort doesn't appear to be up to the level of the top contenders in here; prefer to look toward others.

Cookie

A little concerned that she might be at her best at distances shorter than today's one mile assignment, but she has some early speed to employ, and a number of her dirt starts have been solid performances; note that she's two-for-two over dirt surfaces with moisture in them.

Elusive Fate

Grade 3 stakes placed miss will have the look of a top contender if this race has to be moved to the main track, and like to see what she's done in her four starts over this surface; she might be ready for a top try while making her third start as a 4-year-old.-Brian Pochman

Race 8

Selway

3-year-old took a big step forward in his latest and it is possible the sloppy conditions had something to do with it; horse he beat earned a 48 Beyer Speed Figure when he finished fourth in a MSW race in his next start at Prairie Meadows; first time for Lucas and the past five years he has a 10 percent strike rate with horses coming back between 31-60 days; a wet track would aid his chances but prefer others if it's dry.

John Gordon

Looked like he was on his way after he broke his maiden in a key race in his third start here as a 2-year-old but he hasn't progressed and he's still looking for his second win; for the most part he was facing tougher and, he ran a big race at this level in his first start as a 4-year-old; he figures to move forward with a race behind him and Romans has strong numbers in the turf to dirt category; contender.

Oldwick

Half to $523K Iowa Derby winner Swingforthefences looked like he had a bright future when he won his debut at Belmont a year ago but then didn't resurface until this Feb.; he ran okay considering the layoff but he faded badly in his second start back and now the drop; it is possible he didn't care for the sloppy conditions and while the drop is a concern, (he did cost $825K), he has worked nicely since he arrived here; some things to like.

Doubly Distinct

Nice win two back but then he got fried when he stepped up into a starter allowance race; the horse that chased him finished last; the winner earned an 81 Beyer Speed Figure so it was a much tougher spot; there is other speed in the field but he looks like the one they'll be chasing; can see him sticking around for a long time if he breaks on top; contention runs deep.

Let's Go Ben

Like the way he improved in his latest and it is nice to see him return in a reasonable time period; takes the plunge and the past five years Lopresti has a a 30 percent strike rate with horses running for a claiming price for the first time; his best races have been on Poly at Turfway and Keeneland so not sure how he is going to handle the surface switch; tough call.

Justfollowmylead

Easy to toss his latest at Keeneland as he was trying turf for the first time and he was facing a tougher group in a first-level allowance race; he hasn't sprinted for a while and he didn't make much of an impact in his four races at this distance; there will be speed coming back to him, though, and he might be able to get up in time to spice up the exotics.

Herd Mentality

Lightly-raced 4-year-old ran okay when he faced open $20K claimers in his first start this year and came back with another decent effort despite bumping into the horse next to him at the start in a $50K n/w/2 at Oaklawn; he appeared to be a bit intimidated being stuck on the rail and he could get a nice trip from a stalking position from this post; blinkers off a speed horse can also be a good thing; the pick.

Joedini

Another one taking the plunge into a conditional claimer and the past five years Amoss has a 27 percent strike rate with horses running for a tag the first time; horse that finished second in his latest won a starter race at Delta Downs with a 56 Beyer Speed Figure in his next start; this guys has been off for over two months but he has fired a couple of bullets over this surface and anything coming out of this barn has to be respected.-Randy Goulding

Race 9

Jake Mo

Looks as though he's come into his own; oh, he showed promise back in 2012 when he even got a shot at the G1 Arkansas Derby but even after that his form was spotty; then this past fall, after a long layoff he came back firing, topped off by a game win here Nov. 24 and then after a layoff a smashing win at OP March 21 (98 Beyer); last may be a sign he's figured things out and a repeat of that effort would make him plenty scary; but geez, this race came up tough, didn't it?

Take It Like a Man

Only 5th in a stakes at MNR when last seen but at least that was a good heat (produced 2 next-out winners); trouble is, 'when last seen' was Nov. 12 so there's a lengthy layoff to deal with; does own a local win and he's capable of big things but you have to be a bit worried about his pattern (layoff, so-so run at MNR, another layoff).

Departing

Became one of the better 3yos last year; fizzled in the G3 Oklahoma Derby but that was after a busy season and he was apparently over the top; well, been freshened since and has been working splendidly for this for a trainer who's strong off the bench; it's his first time here but he's run big at a number of places so odds are he'll have no trouble with the footing here.

Pass the Dice

Last 2 outings earned 100 Beyers in each and such a performance level here would make him plenty scary; that being said, those came over a year ago and just under a year ago so that's a long time between drinks; at least has run big before off a long layoff like this and he's reunited with Rosario who was up for one of those big triple-digit Beyer performances.

Carving

Some good work in California in 2012/early 2013, enough he was considered potential Derby timber; that didn't quite pan out and he went to EMD, posted 2 good outings before a dull June 23 run and hasn't been seen since; that's a long layoff to overcome buthe's got quality to be sure and has been working splendidly at KEE of late.

Ol Army

Off a game N3X 2nd on turf at KEE last fall he was givena shot at the G2 Fayette on the main track there and the G3 River City on turf here; well, those waters proved far too deep; he then got a vacation and came back to set the pace and run 4th in a strong N3X turf race at KEE a couple weeks ago; nice to see there's not another layoff and no panicky drop, and he's hanlded dirt in his limited chances; still, this spot came up awfully tough so he likely needs to run a race he hasn't run yet in order to win this.

Seruni

Career best race came over this track just over a year ago when he won easily, posting a huge 104 Beyer; was good enough, too, to then be 3rd to HOY Wise Dan in the G2 Firecracker on turf; pattern since is worrisome, though - layoff/so-so turf race at KEE/long layoff/2 dull outings of late; moves to dirt and at least there's no drop but he needs to turn back the clock to a year ago if he's to be a factor.

Power World

No factor when 6th at KEE April 10 but not only was that his first synthetic try but it was his first action of any kind in over 5 months; now has that under his belt, returns to dirt (all 3 wins on dirt), gets a bit more ground, there's no layoff or drop since and a bullet :47.80B here April 25 bodes well not only in terms of saying he's doing nicely but that he likes it here, which you pretty much already knew (1 win,1 2nd in 2 local starts).

Nicklaus Way

3rd in the slop here last fall but it's not as if he was a factor (beaten 9 3/4 lengths); comes off 2 very nice 2nds at TAM in recent months; down own a local win, though that came some time ago (Nov. 2012); at least comes here in decent form but his top Beyer (90) leaves him with some work to do if he's to compete with the best in here as a few rivals have hit triple-digits before.-Michael Hammersly

Race 10

Minnelli

Tries the lawn for the first time while making her first start for a new barn in her local debut; gray is by a sire who gets 14% winners from his first time surface runners and the dam's 3 wins came on the green prior to dropping a couple of surface winners in the states.

Littlemissperfect

Hasn't done much in any of her 3 starts and now she'll make her local debut while stretching out a half panel; she is kin to 9 time surface winner and 284K earner Unaccountable so she has a right to improve over this footing, but she'll be in against older for the first time today.

Mexican Miss

She's yet to hit the board in 3 turf spins, but she has been on the improve and her numbers do put her in the mix in this spot; filly worked well on dirt for her local debut and it does look as if Lasix has been a help to her; barn doesn't do so well with its turfers, but maybe this one gets mix for a share.

Cash in My Pocket

Took tote support in her Fair Grounds main track sprint debut but after the tough start, didn't do much running; she's been working pretty well on the main track for her return to the races and she'll lure a top pilot; sire gets 16% first time surface winners from his offspring and the SW dam won 3 times on the green while banking 355K prior to dropping a turf winner; can go better today.

Adventure At Sea

Moves back to the green after a weak synthetic try in her first start of the year at Keeneland; filly owns some of the better back surface numbers in the heat and she ran pretty well here earlier in her career; barn does nice work second back from the break; contender.

Princess Mariah

Failed to finish under her own power when trying synthetic footing last time but she ran quite well on the Gulfstream lawn prior to that and may just want the move back to this kind of footing; 4 year old gets a top pilot for her first local spin and she doesn't look to catch a very tough bunch in this spot; contender.

Hiddai

Hood comes off after leading a good part of the way on the stretchout in her return to the turf at Keeneland; she was sent to post at better than 104-1 in that one she not much was expected of her from that outside slot and there's not a lot to suggest she'll go that much better in here; have to pass on this big price.

Engaginglee

She's been given a little time since the sharp placing in her Gulfstream turf debut second time out and did work well on the local dirt for her first start here; filly gives the indication today's added ground will benefit her and given the lack of lick in here maybe she even finds herself a little closer from the bell; one to beat.

Refreshing (GB)

Dangerous turf barn stretches this 4 year old out for her first start since the solid Laurel sprint debut in the fall; she'll get Lasix and Rosie for this and she's been working like she's ready to come back running for a sharp return outfit; must consider.

Angle

Outside drawn filly retains Leparoux for her return from the freshening after failing to fire late in her initial crack at the trip; love the way she's been working for an outfit whose runners usually improve with racing; wouldn't be surprised to see her get in the exotics mix here.

Stella Cavallo

AE ran big in each of her last 2 spaced turf starts in Florida and now she'll make her local return while tackling this course for the initial time if a scratch allows her to go; like the improved lick she showed prior to the time off, but that came through soft splits from the fence and we're most likely to see tactics similar to the nice try in her first start of the year; contender if she goes.

Sylvan Light

AE just missed going long on dirt in her first start since last summer and has a right to be better with the effort behind her; while the 5 year old did run ok on the Ellis lawn 2 back, she's also had many tries; maybe for a minor share if she finds a way in and things somehow heat up in front of her.

Cause to Celebrate

AE goes for her third new outfit in as many starts; neither of her turf spins was much and she's been away over 10 months; with slow interim drills in tow for a barn that's had little luck with this type, it's tough to make much of a case for her getting involved here.

One Hot Romance

AE is mired on the list and not likely to make her second start of the year in this spot; she will start from the outside slot if she does get to go and her last from the rail was pretty bad; barn does ok second back from the break, but can't use her today.

Miracle Run

MTO missed just a half length while returning from the freshening at Oaklawn early last month; she was pretty close to the winner in each of her route tries here last fall and she has shown she likes time between her races; looks to be the main danger if the rains come.-Steve Grabowski