Churchill: Closer Looks for April 29, 2014

Race 1

Paden

Back to the rail from where he ran a fine race in his debut; his sire won multiple G2 stakes and 1.03 million; the dam was also a G2 winner who banked 178K; there are no winning siblings to report; should factor here with the class relief.

Infant Gold

Despite doubling in price a month ago, the gelding was a very sharp second while favored; continues his ascent now yet still warrants respect; his sire was unraced while the dam went zero for 7; sib to 106K earner Smart Kiddo.

Johnny Meyham

Newcomer was sired by G1 type Heatseeker who captured 1.17 million and whose progeny have won 4 of 57 initial starts; the dam won 4 of 42 attempts and 63K; winning siblings include 462K earner Endless Circle.

Shirota

He has earned several checks and has improved significantly since beginning his career at this oval last season; steady breeze pattern this month, at fairly even intervals, is a definite plus; seems worth trifecta inclusion, rain or shine.

Kiawah's Warrior

Far back first time out but he was compromised by outermost post and rapid early pace; his sire won a G2 and 424K while the mom won 3 of 17 and 147K; this is her only foal to start; latest half-mile breeze was fair and he can upgrade.

Iced Over

Spotted the field many lengths in his maiden voyage last November but did not lose by much at all; his sire won 9 of 34 including G1 success in Japan while earning 4.91 million; the dam did not compete; sib to 57K earner All That Glimmers.

Sequoia's Mark

Although the final time of his debut race was ordinary, he turned in a sharp performance when losing significant ground; his sire won 1 of 3 and 19K while the dam lost her sole outing; sib to 181K earner Miss Ann H.; healthy odds assured.

Highrate

Many angles in this colt's favor including the blinker addition, drop from specials and prior experience over the course; his sire won a G2 and 479K while the dam was without a tally in 5 tries; sib to 108K earner Promiscuous; playable.-Jim Kachulis

Race 2

Twin Engine

Pushed along in last, he may be better served settling and rallying like he did in the last win; place horse 1/17 cashed next out in a $32K Tampa optional with an 82 Beyer; 2/28 show horse won next out in a $131K Woodbine stakes with an 85 Beyer; that nose win three back may have taken a toll; must pick it up.

Bernie the Maestro

Proven fresh here on grass, any horse that can win 18 of 60 is a friend of mine; out of the money just twice at this distance and he got a boost when place horse in the last win cashed next out in a $25K optional with an 86 Beyer; stakes winner handles any kind of going; the one to beat.

Stay Put

He's won locally and he's won off the vacation; place horse 6/22 cashed twice since, the last in a $50K claimer here in November; winner 5/24 took an $80K optional next out, lost next 6; needs help up front but there seems to be a fair amount of speed here; look for him late if at all.

Whatthecatdrugin

Nothing wrong with hitting the exacta in 23 of 37 and 11 of his wins came at this distance; the 2013 finale came back ultra live as 5 exited the race to win next out; he has more speed than he just showed; style no secret, look for Elliott to send hard and try to steal it.

Battle Hardened

Pro veered out at the break in last and that may have taken the edge off; note he was still 5 clear; place horse in the 2014 opener won and was third in $62.5K optional land since; like fact he has speed but can sit just off the pace and perform; both Makers are live.

Tarpy's Goal

Over 3 clear in the tough beat last time; the local win came in the debut at 5 furlongs with a 63 Beyer; he has shown a penchant for finding the wire, is sharp right now and can't be dismissed.

Grip Hands

Veteran goes from one good barn to another; forced to steady in the GP finale, 4 of his 5 wins came on the synthetic; between horses in last, he may have just hated being in tight; note runner did win in the second off the layoff run last July; last angle to think about: this rider is 17 for 50 for this barn in the last year or so.-Brian Mulligan

Race 3

Heaven's Touch

100K purchase in 2012 was well worth the wait commencing career 40 days ago as a 4-year-old but doing so in sharp-near gate-to-wire fashion with a co-field-best Beyer speed figure attached; the race looks better since the show finisher posted an 88 Beyer speed figure in a next-out AQU-MSW win; opening night-CD 2014 we did not see one last-out GP runner win or any runner win gate-to-wire.

Hot and Dangerous

2-KEE last-out winners scored Saturday night one on dirt and on one turf both rallying from midpack; major issue is her only CD dirt start being a last-place finish which was vs. much-stiffer stakes company and at 1 Mile when it's apparent she's best sprinting; has been outfinished in recent starts so will be seeking the winner elsewhere.

Velvet Zip

The last-out FG starters were strong opening night at CD with 4 winners; all were racing following 30-day or longer layoffs; same scenario for this one; her debut win was nearly gate-to-wire when beating the show finisher who Beyered 65-63 in 2 next-out wins (FG-30K-maiden-claiming and HAW-allowance) working well for this but still has something to prove rating because she has been pure speed and it appears Heaven's Touch and Tres Belle own better early zip.

In Kelly's Defense

Trainer won with a last-out-fresh FG starter on opening night at CD Saturday; the best news is that she stalks the speed effectively and that was the winning profile on dirt here 2 nights ago; another great sign is she owns her career-best Beyer on CD dirt; the pick.

Successful Luck

The 2nd-start Beyer regression and less-than-stellar CD worktab for this leaves her ranked as an outsider; late runner gets a good pace flow to rally into; the show finisher from last Beyered 77 in a next-out GP-optional-claiming win; she beat the runner-up finisher in her debut who posted a 76 speed figure in a next-out GP-MSW win.

Tres Belle

Troubled-gate break for her 4-year-old seasonal debut but finished 2nd best anyway; she seems set to move forward strongly 2nd time off the bench; her debut-dirt win was gate-to-wire but had to like that she was forced to show a rating gear in last; unveiling represents a co-field-best Beyer beating the runner-up and show finishers; they Beyered 79-76 in next-out SA-MSW wins; the one to beat.-Art Gropper

Race 5

Grace's Miracle

New outfit enters her in a protected spot for her first start since their buy over 5 months back; mare doesn't have much early foot and all 5 of her career scores have come over synthetic footing; dirt drills for the comebacker aren't much; just watching her today.

Prom Theme

She's back in with starter allowance foes while making her return to a venue at which she's failed to hit the board in 4 career spins; 5 year old may have a little extra to offer late on the turn back today and she has won a couple of times on dirt; one to consider.

Cajun Diva

Louisiana bred makes her first local start while turning back on the surface switch in this spot; she showed solid early foot wiring a cheaper bunch over a wet track 3 starts back and she could well be set to offer more late with that last route try in her pocket; can get in the exotics mix here.

Gettem Up Girl

Seeks her fifth straight score after a handful of narrow victories over all 3 major racing surfaces; mare earned a big number running better down at Keeneland earlier in the month but she's also run competitive figures on this type of footing; don't know that this off the pace type is in line for a great setup in front of her and maybe that alone warrants trying to beat her at the quoted morning line price, but they'll have her to fear in the lane.

Fivefeethi Nrisen

Tries a much better bunch after failing to seriously threaten limited winners in her first start of the year at Keeneland; nice to see Elliott take interest in her after lighting things up at Keeneland but she hasn't earned a recent number that fits particularly well in this heat; have to back others for the money slots.

Quite Explosive

Drops a notch after getting beaten by one of these at a shorter trip in her return from a brief break; mare hasn't run very fast on dirt lately but she does have a right to move forward with her last behind her and the added panel will likely benefit her.

Hearts Wild

Four year old has yet to run as fast as most of these and her route try last out at Keeneland wasn't anything to get excited about; her win 2 back at Turfway also came back light on the figure scale and her lone local try was weak; looms a big price today.

Great Abacus

Last out graduate starts from the outside slot in her first with winners; while she's on the improve from a figure standpoint, she's slow as well and her 2 starts on dirt were just bad; have to side against the repeat, regardless of price.-Steve Grabowski

Race 6

Barzini

This is a tough group of 40k claimers and this gelding figures to have a tough time of it while stepping up from the 32k claiming level, and he was entered with a 16k tag attached just two starts ago; Leparoux has won with 8 of 30 (27%) mounts for this barn in 2014, but going to look toward others regardless.

Jimmy Simms

Multple stakes winner has won three of his last four starts and he hauls the best last race Beyer Speed Figure with him into this contest; he owns the positional speed to take full advantage of a favorable inside post, and it doesn't hurt to see that he's run well over the CD turf in the past.

Smart and True

Simply feel that he's never run a race that is up to the level of the top contenders in here and it's difficult to envision him as being anything more than a possible early pace factor against this strong field of 40k claimers.

Key to Power

If you can forgive his latest performance, he can be viewed as a top contender, and his performance just two starts back is right in line with what it might take to get the job done in this spot; both of his starts over this turf course have been solid performances.

Jomelo

Multiple stakes placed gelding is light on recent winning form, but he's run well in his two starts since moving into this barn, and the presence of Napravnik can be viewed as a positive as she's won with 15 of 35 (43%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Vindication Now

A couple of his recent turf starts have been his better performances but he's going to need to improve over those efforts to prove to be the one in this spot; runner up from latest won next out at LS on 4/12 at LS going 1m over turf with a 77 Beyer, and third finisher won next out at WRD on 3/11 going 1m vs. N1X rivals with a 72 Beyer.

Double Rah Rah

He's run some nice races over dirt in his career,but his turf form hasn't been as a strong, and this has to be considered a tough spot for him to be going after his first turf victory; he looks like more of an outsider.

Derby Kitten

Grade 3 winner has turf form on his card that is strong enough to give him a competitive look in this spot, and he might be ready to give a good account of himself while going synthetic-to-turf for his second start back from a layoff; Castellano has won with 27 of 76 (35%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Dynamical

Jimmy Simms might be tough to tackle in this spot regardless of the surface that this race is run over, but this gelding has shown the ability to dial up a pretty solid dirt start on his best day; at the very least, he's worthy of consideration underneath in the exotics.

D' Wildcard

Have to respect what he's done in his 12 starts over the main track here and he'll benefit from the services of Borel if this race has to be moved to the main track; however, his best effort might be a cut or two below what the top contenders in here are capable of.

It Happened Again

Grade 3 winner will have every bit the look of a contender if this race has to be taken off the turf and he's displayed solid form racing over the main track here in the past; if he feels up to one of his better performances, he'll be tough to deal with, and Napravnik has won with 15 of 35 (43%) mounts for this barn in 2014.-Brian Pochman

Race 7

Money Fan

The McPeek-trained runners loved the KEE strip; he exits a career-best Beyer speed figure racing over that synthetic surface; racing back on dirt today is a concern; obviously his only Mile race being dull 2-back does not help the confidence level; was defeated by the winner who Beyered 79 in a next-out OP-optional-claiming win; best game is to sit back then make one run.

Otis My Man

Last-out FG-fresh runners won 4 races at CD opening night; the new rider had options but lands here; plenty of upside off the debut effort; has not raced past 6F yet or on a fast track; sire won the BEL Stakes at 1Mile and a half; 2-for-3 dam (53K) did not race past 7F; she produced 1 winner from 5 other foals to race (145K-Magical Band 3-for-12) but zero starters going long; the one to beat.

Thunder's Rollin'

Try to catch me; he ran against an OP closers' bias in last tiring to finish 3rd in deep stretch but posting a co-field-best Beyer speed figure; speed did not hold up well opening night at CD without an official gate-to-wire winner; been best on dirt and hopes to take these a long way up top; speedy contender.

K C Kid

The stretchout for the grass debut did not work out well exiting a career-low Beyer; clearly his 2-back 7F rally would fit better in this 1-turn Mile event but it remains to be seen how well last-out TAM runners will fare at the current-CD meet; rider Mena leaves Otis My Man for this.

Proud Maxx

25%-winning turf-to-dirt trainer while new rider makes it 4 different jockeys in as many races which is not a good-win angle; the 2-back winner repeated in the Grade 2-Tampa Bay Derby with a 95 Beyer; has a lot to prove off his GP-winter form.

Avellino

By a Grade 3-stakes-winning grass sire (1-for-4 in dirt routes 92K) who is 10-for-116 with debut runners; is out of a 1-for-9 dam (51K) who finished 6th in her only Mile test; his dam graduated 5th time out at 1M on SAR grass; her 2 other foals to race are 4-0-1-0 combined (4K) while neither runner has attempted a dirt route.

Harbor Bound

A wet-race track in last produced a co-field-best Beyer speed figure; proved he could handle fast dirt in his November-CD exacta finish at longer; trainer is 2-for-6 since 2013 with the MSW-to-maiden-claiming class-drop angle; hopes not to bounce for this returning in 33 days after posting a new Top with 8 weeks between starts; the pick.

Jaz N Tap

Freshened up off the TP off-the-board finish; big-surface test racing on dirt for the 1st time; been best when forwardly placed and takes the MSW-to-maiden-claiming drop seeking answers; did not fire fresh at KEE last fall; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Brilliant Messi

Trainer is 1-for-9 turf-to-dirt since 2013; the added distance for latest did not help the cause regressing 11 Beyer points; steady-CD dirt workout for this but comes off the 6-week rest for an 8%-fresh trainer since 2013; others appeal more.-Art Gropper

Race 9

La Malaguena

Minor stakes winner has been on top of her game in recent starts, but she has to prove that she can be at her best racing over turf, and she's going to need to see a few of these show up with less than their best to have a chance at the top spot; winner from latest won next out at Kee on 4/18 going 1 1/16m in a G3 with a 96 Beyer.

Dame Marie

She's capable of putting together a very nice performance over turf on her best day and it's worth noting that a few of her better efforts have been run over this turf course, and it's also worth noting the way that she's responded the two times Leparoux has been aboard; must consider.

Absolute Crackers (IRE)

Stakes placed mare beat a few of today's rivals in her most recent start, and even though that was over the synthetic surface at Keeneland, her turf form has been strong enough to point her out as a top contender; obvious threat.

Awesome Flower

Multiple stakes winner shows up for Ramsey and Maker, and the presence of Castellano can't be ignored as he's won with 27 of 76 (36%) mounts for this barn in 2014; she'll have the look of a top contender whether this race is run over turf or the main track.

Maid On a Mission

From three turf starts, she hasn't posted a 1-2 finish, and looking at this as being a difficult step up in class for her; perhaps she'll be worth looking out for the next time around with a drop in class.

Drama Drama

She was beaten by a few of today's rivals in her most recent start, but that was over a synthetic surface, and that race can serve as a useful conditioner for this; she has run some nice races over turf in her career, but her two starts over this turf course haven't been a couple of her better efforts.

Primed for Passion

She's a little interesting from the standpoint that her form has improved since moving into this barn and that this will be her first turf start for them, despite recent statistics, Napravnik has been known to get live calls from this outfit.

Nashindy

One of two signed on in this spot for the Sheppard barn and this Augustin-homebred ran well in her only turf start two races ago, and that was after reeling off three consecutive wins to begin her career; not willing to count this stakes placed miss out of it.

Honey Hues

Outside of Awesome Flower, it's fair to question what these are capable of over dirt, so this mare will merit top contender status if she gets to run in this spot; Graham has won with 11 of 29 (38%) mounts for this barn in 2014.-Brian Pochman

Race 10

Littlebitcranky

It's hard to put a positive spin on a 0 for 36 runner; mare has been off poorly of late and that doesn't help the cause at all; she didn't lose this many times because she has a heart of gold; even when she has been sent long, she has flashed zero speed; can't endorse.

Truly Royal

She was a bit more keen to run early in last but reality set in before they hit the stretch; backers can hang their hat on fact that the sibling to win cashed routing once; not seeing it.

Golden B. J.

She was inching toward the winner in last; 11/17 place horse graduated for this price next out and the show finisher earned diploma in next in a maiden $5K claimer, then ran out of the money twice; miss did improve a bit in the last second off the layoff effort; looms late threat if at all.

Fab Autumn Girl

Miss showed signs of life the first time for this price; considering the exacta players were clear, the race was not all that bad; 4th finisher in last took a maiden $8K claimer next out and the winner repeated in a $16K seller; 2 for 14 dam won routing, earned about $35K; this is her first to race; rates upset glance.

Comic Band

Youngster was hung wide when she was getting out from the marooned slot; 1 for 3 dam cashed sprinting; the half bro that won, Silent Bandit, took 2 sprints, banked about $33K in 10 starts; sire and dam were sprint only; look for rider to send hard and try to steal it.

Midnight Madame

Must be given legit look on the drop alone; 1 for 10 dam took a sprint; the sibling that won did cash routing but was only one for 55; backers have to hope the drop shakes her up.

Gone Girl

Maverick 3 for 38 with first-timers sire was out of the money thrice; 2 for 9 dam won routing once, banked over $50K; several multiple race winners in the family; several won routing; the best was probably Reach for a Peach, who took 2 of 7, banked about $85K; steady drills and she doesn't hook any monsters.

Malala's Diary

Bet like a good thing on the cut back last time but she again broke poorly; at least there are several successful routers in the family; at least she got a work here Friday; would still think long and hard before taking too short a number.

Simply Spicy

Pressed issue when wide vs. tougher; the debut came back okay as the place horse took a maiden $12.5K claimer next out, the winner repeated in a $20K starter and the 9th finisher was 2nd a length in a $35K maiden claimer; Grade 3 placed 5 for 17 dam earned nearly $250K, won routing once; the half sis to win Indygo Fashion took 3 routes, banked about $40K in 10 starts; may like it here.

Miss Delstar

Soph has more speed than she just flashed; near millionaire sire was a Graded winner routing but that is as good as it gets as far as stamina in the family; could be up close for awhile.

Wasting Cash

Giacomo 10 for 150 with debuters; sire did win at 2 before taking the Kentucky Derby on way to over $2.5K career; dam out of the money in the only start; 1 of 3 siblings won; that runner took 2 of 15, earned about a grand a start, won routing once; in for $9K more than purchase price.

Bella Ana

Beaten 52 lengths in her local efforts and she gave way easily even after the soft splits in last; she could be compromised by the slot; passing.-Brian Mulligan