Churchill allowance may offer clues to two Breeders' Cup races

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies will go off at 6:25 p.m. Eastern at Del Mar, followed by the Juvenile Fillies Turf. About two hours prior to the Juvenile Fillies comes the seventh race on Friday at Churchill Downs. This $127,000 allowance/optional-claiming race, for 2-year-old fillies going seven furlongs who have never won a race other-than or who have never won two races, features a trio of fillies – Liam in the Dust, Lady Orient, and Tiz Purple – who have faced Breeders’ Cup entrants in their nascent careers, and who could provide final clues as to the strength of various prep races for last-minute handicappers.

Liam in the Dust was a debut winner going seven furlongs in August at Ellis Park, defeating a next-out winner, before her next two starts came in graded stakes company for Rodolphe Brisset. She finished second in the Grade 3 Pocahontas going a one-turn mile at Churchill, beaten just three-quarters of a length by Juvenile Fillies entrant La Cara, after leading in the stretch. In the Grade 1 Alcbiades at Keeneland – in which Juvenile Fillies entrants Immersive and Quickick were one-two – Liam in the Dust vied early in the 1 1/16-mile, two-turn race before fading badly to seventh. A cutback could be in her favor.

While Liam in the Dust owns a graded stakes placing, Tiz Purple, trained by Steve Asmussen, and Lady Orient, trained by Tom Amoss, were well beaten in their stakes outings. Tiz Purple, a restricted maiden winner, was ninth in the Grade 1 Spinaway, then seventh at the allowance level at Keeneland. Lady Orient, a debut winner sprinting on the Ellis turf, was seventh in the P.G. Johnson on the Saratoga turf, won by Juvenile Fillies Turf entrant Totally Justified. Lady Orient is by Liam’s Map – also the sire of Liam in the Dust – and her pedigree, along with a recent bullet work, suggests a move to dirt could be in her wheelhouse.

The even-money morning-line favorite for this allowance, however, is Muhimma, a $700,000 yearling purchase by Shadwell last year. The filly was a 7 1/2-length debut winner going 6 1/2 furlongs in September at Churchill for Brad Cox.

◗ Along with these stakes-seasoned fillies in the seventh race, Friday’s Churchill program features a number of strong 2-year-old maiden special weights. The day’s third race includes four who sold for more than $500,000 as yearlings last year. Those are led by Mischievous Intent, by leading sire Into Mischief and the first foal out of multiple Grade 1 winner Guarana. The $1.4 million colt is trained by Asmussen.

◗ Great Moment, a half-brother to Bango, the winningest horse in recorded Churchill Downs history, makes his debut in Friday’s fifth race – one day before Bango goes for his 13th local victory in the Bet On Sunshine Stakes. Great Moment, a Tamaroak Partners homebred, is trained by Greg Foley, who also conditioned his dam, Josaka, for the same owners. Bango is by Congrats, while Great Moment is by that stallion’s full brother Flatter.