Chaos Theory favored in turf sprint; Glatt eyes win No. 1,000

One never knows what will happen on a quiet weekday at Del Mar.

It might be a winning bet on a longshot sprinter, or a milestone victory by an increasingly prominent stable, or a successful transition from debut sprint to allowance route. Perhaps all three will happen in separate allowance races Friday.

Race 2 is an allowance turf sprint in which graded winner Chaos Theory faces less accomplished rivals whose higher odds may justify added wagering risk. Race 3 could give trainer Mark Glatt career win No. 1,000 in a Thoroughbred race, and race 6 marks the second career start for impressive debut winner First Prez. Who knows if he will run long?

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Chaos Theory is favored in race 2. He won the Grade 3 Green Flash Handicap two back at Del Mar, finished fourth in the Grade 2 Woodford last out at Keeneland, and already has earned $67,500 from two starts after being claimed for $62,500 by trainer John Sadler and Hronis Racing.

But stables get hot and cold, and the past five weeks were uncharacteristically chilly for one of the circuit’s top trainers. Sadler is winless with 36 starters since Oct. 12, with eight seconds and seven thirds. The drought is likely to change if Chaos Theory reproduces his summer-meet win in the Green Flash.

Graded stakes winner Texas Wedge has regressed in the second half of the year, but he faces easier while wheeling back 13 days after finishing 11th in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.

A pair of upset candidates trained by Phil D’Amato include vastly improved Tilted Towers, who won Del Mar maiden and allowance turf sprints in summer before he got sick and scratched from an allowance race Oct. 12 at Santa Anita. The setback was minor.

“He didn’t miss much time, a couple days, maybe three,” D’Amato said. “He came back in really good shape, and his last couple drills were really good. I gave him a nice little blowout on the turf [Sunday] with Abel Cedillo up. He’s ready to go.”

However, D’Amato advises bettors not overlook Overdue, whose two starts this year – sixth and eighth – disguise his current form. D’Amato chalks up the losses to “bad circumstances.”

Overdue was primed for an August comeback, but the only option was the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile. D’Amato knew it was too tough, he just wanted to give Overdue a prep.

“He didn’t run a bad race that day, then I tried him on dirt because he was training so well,” D’Amato said. “He kind of laid an egg on the dirt, like a lot of grass horses do.”

Since then, Overdue has “trained up a storm,” D’Amato said.

“He’s ready to go and I’ve got a Hall of Fame rider,” D’Amato said, referring to Mike Smith, the meet’s second leading rider, with a record of 7 for 21.

Front-runners Mr Vargas and Mikes Tiznow help ensure an honest pace, and while Chaos Theory is the most probable winner, Tilted Towers and Overdue offer potential value.

Value is minimal in race 3, a five-runner second-level allowance at 1 1/8 miles on dirt. Zestful could wire the field, which would be the 1,000th win in a Thoroughbred race for trainer Mark Glatt, who has been training since 1994.

“It’s a nice accomplishment, and a credit to my crew over the years and all the people who have allowed me to train for them,” Glatt said. “There’s probably been many a trainer to win 1,000. I don’t think it’s rare, but certainly it’s not easy to do.”

Glatt could hit the 1,000-win milestone with Zestful or any of four runners Saturday. And afterward?

“You have to go out and win 2,000,” Glatt said with a laugh.

According to Equibase, a little more than 100 trainers have won at least 2,000 races.

Glatt’s stable has become increasingly prominent at higher class levels, with a roster that includes Grade 1-winning sprinter Collusion Illusion, Grade 2 winner Sharp Samurai, and an exciting maiden named Affable who will be a 3-year-old colt to follow in 2021.

Affable, a $600,000 colt by Flatter, finished second in his debut Nov. 8. He galloped out super, earned an 83 Beyer, and will sprint once more before he stretches out.

“We think the farther, the better,” Glatt said. “That’s kind of how he ran, and for a five-horse field he was kind of in some tight places. It was probably an excellent education for him.”

Affable will make his second start at the Santa Anita winter meet.

Race 6 is the final allowance race Friday at Del Mar, and second-time starter First Prez is being asked to do a lot in the California-bred turf mile. But he won his sprint debut with a strong late kick and should love two turns. A sibling to route stakes winner Rovenna, First Prez is trained by Doug O’Neill and owned by breeder Donald Dizney.