Chaos, luck part of handicapping equation in Grand National
AINTREE, England – Finding the winner of the Grand National, the world’s most famous horse race not run in Kentucky, requires creative handicapping, ample homework, and a hefty dose of good luck.
A field of 40 will assemble, without a starting gate, at 12:15 p.m. Eastern at Aintree Racecourse north of Liverpool on Saturday for a start always hectic and sometimes chaotic.
Once underway, the massive herd of 7-year-olds and up will set off on two circuits of the famous race that covers 4 5/16 miles and 30 stamina-testing obstacles.
Becher’s Brook, with its 10-inch drop on the landing side, is the sixth and 22nd fence. The Chair, an imposing 5-foot-2-inch fence, will be jumped once in front of the stands at the end of the first circuit of the $1.25 million race.
It is there that, with luck, expected favorite Corach Gambler, who was 7-1 as of Thursday, will be in contention. The winner of a handicap chase at 3 1/8 miles at Cheltenham on March 14, Corach Gambler will carry 145 pounds, far fewer than topweight Any Second Now (14-1) at 166 pounds.
Delta Work (8-1) is another runner who specializes in marathon distances and should become a factor as the third mile unfolds.
Noble Yeats, the winner of the race in 2022, was 9-1 as of Thursday to become the first repeat winner since Tiger Roll in 2019.
Noble Yeats was 50-1 with bookmakers last year, and his long winning price is emblematic of the results that can occur in a big field with many runners racing on the course for the first time.
Of the 12 runnings since 2010, favorites have won twice, including Tiger Roll at a low-priced 4-1. The race was not held in 2020 because of the pandemic. Since 2010, Noble Yeats has not been the highest-priced winner, a distinction that goes to 66-1 Aurora’s Encore in 2013. There have been two winners each at 33-1 and 25-1 in that span.
With that in mind, backing a longshot is not a crazy idea.
Cape Gentleman, for example, was 80-1 on Thursday for his first Grand National debut. The 7-year-old is trained in Ireland by Shark Hanlon, who trains Hewick, the 2022 Eclipse Award winner as the outstanding steeplechase runner in the United States.
Cape Gentleman, who will carry 148 pounds, has won 4 of 15 starts, but has lost his last eight starts since a novices’ chase at 2 1/2 miles in Ireland in October 2021.
Cape Gentleman is owned by Pierre Manigualt of Charleston, S.C., whose great-uncle Stephen Sanford won the race in 1923 with Sergeant Murphy. Manigault bought Cape Gentleman over the winter.
Of the 40 runners, 27 are trained in Ireland, continuing that country’s dominance of the major jump races in England. At the four-day Cheltenham festival last month, Irish-trained runners won 18 of the 28 races.
Aside from the runners with single-digit odds, Coko Beach (25-1), the winner of a handicap chase at Punchestown Racecourse in Ireland on Feb. 19, is an attractive price. Coko Beach is one of six runners trained by Gordon Elliott, who is seeking a record-tying fourth win in the race.
Race-calling a team job
The Grand National covers over four miles, or two circuits, over the unique Aintree course, big enough that at least three announcers are required to describe the action.
There will be three commentary teams in place for Saturday’s Grand National – a four-person radio team and three-person crew workings on behalf of the British ITV television network, and the on-course commentators, whose descriptions will be broadcast worldwide via satellite, including to viewers on DRFBets.com.
Simon Holt, who called his first Grand National in 1989, will lead the satellite team that includes Alan Howes (whose first Grand National call was in 2014) and David Fitzgerald (2017).
They carve the course between them with Holt describing the start and the run toward the wire the first time, and the finish. Howes and Fitzgerald have the rest of the course between them, calling the action at a point nearly a mile from the stands.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.