Chaos can reign as Woodbine meet winds down

ETOBICOKE, Ontario – Anything goes during the waning weeks of the marathon Woodbine meet, when conventional handicapping methods can be ignored.

Many horses will run back on short rest, sometimes successfully. Some longtime maidens will finally break through, in part to attrition. Many horses will drop sharply in class, not always effectively, and others in sharp form will jump up and win, even some from Fort Erie.

In Thursday’s opener, Dancin Mary Marie runs back just 12 days after coming up empty in a two-turn experiment against Ontario-sired and $40,000 maidens. The 2-year-old filly is turning back to seven furlongs while cheapening up significantly to $25,000. Over the past five years, trainer Michelle Love is 0 for 6 going route to sprint, but three of those runners were competitive. Dancin Mary Marie could be dangerous at a square price under a hot Ryan Munger.

Last American Exit and Border Town are both halving in value in the fifth race, a six-furlong test for open $25,000 claimers.

Last American Exit finished sixth behind reigning Canadian champion male sprinter Patches O’Houlihan in both the July 28 Pink Lloyd Stakes and the Grade 3 Vigil on Sept. 14. Most recently in a conditioned allowance/$50,000 optional claimer, the 7-year-old ran fifth behind the stakes-placed favorite Playmea Tune and Armstrong.

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Trainer Harold Ladouceur claimed Last American Exit for $25,000 nearly two years ago and sent him out to finish second in two Grade 3 stakes last year. Therefore, the drop back down to that price isn’t all that suspect, and the fact he has the highest recent synthetic Beyer Speed Figures in the field points him out as perhaps the one to fear most under Fraser Aebly.

Trained by Marty Drexler, Border Town wintered at Gulfstream Park and was at his best in early summer when he wired conditioned allowance/optional-claiming stock with a 97 Beyer. He went over the top thereafter and was well beaten in each of his last three outings, finishing seventh behind Last American Exit after failing to flash his customary speed most recently.

Going back five years, Drexler has won at a 21 percent clip with runners dropping at least 50 percent in value, with a return on investment of $1.45. Border Town is picking up leading rider Sahin Civaci, who will attempt to put him on the point. The eight-time winner has the look of a wild card who could be first or worst.

Fort Erie shippers fared okay here last week, but Where Is Essa is ambitiously spotted in the fifth off three straight competitive races in allowance company on the dirt. He looks like a pitch.

Top of the Charts got an 88 Beyer last time when winning a key starter/optional claimer on the turf, his surface of choice. His Tapeta record is mediocre, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him make some noise in the fifth with apprentice Austin Adams riding for trainer Kevin Attard, a hot combo.

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