Cardinal Stakes more competitive if it stays on turf

Analyzing the Grade 3, $300,000 Cardinal Stakes, the Thanksgiving Day co-feature at Churchill Downs, is a tale of two races – or rather, of two courses.

If the race for fillies and mares remains at 1 1/8 miles on the turf, as scheduled, it is a relatively evenly matched affair. Juncture, appearing on the upswing off a solid graded stakes placing, meets graded winner Walkathon, graded-placed Joyful Applause, and the consistent Lovely Princess, with the European import Star Fortress an intriguing newcomer.

However, it stands to reason that one shouldn’t assume the race will remain on the turf. Churchill has been mainly off the turf for eight consecutive cards since Nov. 10, with only the Grade 3 River City Stakes, on Nov. 11, contested on the course. Churchill representatives told Daily Racing Form on Nov. 13 they were “dissatisfied” with the condition of the course and would continue to monitor the conditions, but that it would be a “day-to-day” situation. These races have come off the turf during a period with little precipitation in Kentucky. There is rain forecast for Tuesday across the region.

If the race does come off the turf, Take a Stand and Saffron Moon are the only members of this field with some form on the dirt – albeit, long ago in Saffron Moon’s case. That filly, also a turf winner, is the 2-1 morning-line favorite. Juncture, coming off a third in the Grade 2 Rodeo Drive behind Didia for Brad Cox, is 5-2.

Walkathon, trained by Ian Wilkes, and Joyful Applause, trained by Helen Pitts, would be looking for breakthrough scores on a turf course they have shown affinity for. Walkathon won all three of her starts last year, including the Grade 3 Regret on this course over eventual Grade 1 winner McKulick, before being sidelined. She is looking for her first win of the season, with the Cardinal her third start off a layoff. Regular rider Julien Leparoux, whose patient style suits her loping stride, remains in the irons.

Joyful Applause prefers to be forwardly placed, and will have to break alertly to secure that position from the rail under Orlando Mojica. She does have an advantage in that she could perhaps be alone on the lead. Conversely, the well-regarded Juncture may find a lack of pace for her typical rally.

Joyful Applause is coming off a solid allowance victory at Indiana. She has not won from seven starts on the Churchill turf, but has never missed the board, including a second to Bubble Rock in the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere last November in her only prior graded stakes try.

Take a Stand was third in that Mrs. Revere in her only prior turf start for Vicki Oliver. She has won twice from her other 16 career starts on dirt, including a second in the 2022 Audubon Oaks at Ellis Park.

Saffron Moon has scored all three of her career wins on turf for Chad Brown. However, when last seen on dirt, in a Belmont maiden in October 2021, she finished a solid third after flashing some speed; the winner was regular graded stakes competitor Nostalgic.

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