Caravel can rebound from last and dominate Franklin Stakes

Caravel began a winning streak a year ago in the Franklin Stakes, and the best turf sprinter in North America can start another one Sunday at Keeneland in the 2023 renewal of the Grade 2, $350,000 Franklin.

The Franklin marked the first in a string of five straight wins for Caravel, who finally cracked Aug. 5 in the Troy Stakes at Saratoga. She didn’t run terribly in the Troy, and the 91 Beyer Speed Figure that Caravel earned lines up favorably with the 92 she got winning the Franklin last October. But Caravel was nowhere near her top form, showing early speed and never threatening after being displaced on the lead before the turn.

A soft turf course probably had everything to do with Caravel’s defeat. Winning time in the Troy was 1:03.70, nearly three seconds slower than the 2021 Troy and about two seconds slower than the race’s historical par. Caravel has raced effectively over good going, but the laboring conditions at Saratoga blunted her speed and sapped her brilliance.

Brad Cox, who has trained Caravel since she was purchased in November 2021 for $500,000, freshened the mare following the Troy, giving Caravel a grass work Sept. 3 at Saratoga before sending her to join his Churchill Downs string. Caravel worked four times at Churchill in preparation for the Franklin, and at this point there’s no reason to view the Troy as anything other than an outlier performance.

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At her baseline level, Caravel, who breaks from post 1, wins comfortably Sunday under Tyler Gaffalione. The mare’s three victories from three Keeneland turf starts includes her win last November in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, and Caravel also won the Grade 1 Jaipur over males in June at Belmont. She’s likely to rebound Sunday at a very short price and head to Santa Anita among the favorites for this year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Caravel is listed at 9-5 on the morning line but feels more like an odds-on favorite facing eight rivals.

While the soft course stopped Caravel in her most recent start, Twilight Gleaming simply was stopped the last time she raced. Sent from trainer Wesley Ward’s Keeneland base to Del Mar for the July 28 Daisycutter, a race she won in 2022, Twilight Gleaming had started closing on the leaders when jockey Mike Smith dove to the inside at the eighth pole, trying to get through a narrow hole along the rail. It closed, Smith checked hard, and all was lost for Twilight Gleaming.

Twilight Gleaming won the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, and this past April captured the Giant’s Causeway at Keeneland, but the filly has a serious problem: Caravel just is a faster horse. In the 2022 Franklin, Twilight Gleaming finished fourth, 2 3/4 lengths behind Caravel, and Twilight Gleaming won’t beat the favorite if she runs to form and avoids compromising trouble.

The first three home in the Ladies Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs – Bay Storm, Wakanaka, and Tony Ann – return for the Franklin. The trio, separated by a neck and a head, cuts back from an extended 6 1/2 furlongs to 5 1/2 on Sunday, which benefits Bay Storm and Tony Ann more than Wakanaka. Tony Ann, a lightly raced 5-year-old, has the most upside among those three.

Charlie Appleby and Godolphin have an unusual entrant in 3-year-old filly Star Guest, who was made a short 4-1 on the morning line. On bare form, Star Guest should be four times that price. The filly has improved since being cut back to six furlongs, and she has shown good speed, but her two-race winning streak came in straight-course sprints at Newmarket while facing lower-level Class 4 and Class 3 handicaps. Compare the Timeform Rating of 97 for Star Guest, who never has come close to stakes competition, to Live In The Dream, who shipped from England last week for the Woodford Stakes with a 123 rating.

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