Can Frosted get the Classic distance?

Among the many questions for handicappers to ponder in analyzing the Breeders’ Cup Classic is the following: Can Frosted be effective at 1 1/4 miles against horses of this caliber? Let’s examine his race record and pedigree in search of an answer.

First, his record. In four starts at 1 1/4 miles, he has yet to run better than third. Granted, some of those losses were fine efforts, such as a fourth in the 2015 Kentucky Derby and a third in the 2015 Travers. Less encouraging were a seventh in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic and a fifth in the Dubai World Cup.

He probably could get 1 1/4 miles in a field of lesser quality than the Classic. He was a five-length winner at 1 3/16 miles in the Maktoum Challenge in Meydan when prepping for the Dubai World Cup and no doubt would have won that race just as comfortably if it had been 1 1/4 miles.

He also exhibited staying power when second in the 2015 Belmont at 1 1/2 miles, though the flow of that race favored front-runners, with American Pharoah and Frosted running one-two all the way around the track in a slow-paced race.

Frosted has had much more success in shorter routes. Going 1 1/8 miles, he is a dual Grade 1 winner, having won the Wood Memorial at 3 and the Whitney this summer at Saratoga at age 4. He also won the Grade 1 Met Mile at Belmont by 14 1/4 lengths in June in the performance of his career.

His races at shorter than 1 1/4 miles have been superior, though except for the Met Mile, none of his Grade 1 victories was in a race nearly as challenging as the Dubai World Cup or Breeders’ Cup Classic.

What about pedigree? He would appear at first glance to be bred to get the distance, being by Tapit and out of the Deputy Minister mare Fast Cookie, who was a graded-stakes-winning router. But the dam’s progeny, even those by staying sires, have largely been middle-distance routers and sprinters.

My take on Frosted is that he needs a perfect trip to win at 1 1/4 miles in the Classic against California Chrome and company. Going a distance seemingly beyond his best, he must be ridden patiently, get some pace in front of him while stalking the leaders, and make a short closing run.

He can’t go head to head with another rival and stay – his duel and fade vs. American Pharoah in the Travers is evidence of that – and he showed last out Sept. 3 in the Woodward at Saratoga that a sustained rally isn’t his strength either. In the Woodward, he tried to make up nearly six lengths on the leaders after a slow start and hung after taking the lead in midstretch, finishing third in a blanket finish.

Frosted seems best viewed with a moderate degree of skepticism in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and would appear to be best played in the gimmicks to settle for a minor award.