Cal Expo: Wednesday 4/1 Analysis

MEET STATS: 42-17-10-3 / $98.20 (+$14.20)
BEST BETS: 4-2-1-0 / $6.40 (-$1.60)
BEST BET: ITS POINTLESS (4th)
SPOT PLAY: MISTER HAT (9th)
20 cent $50K Guaranteed Pick 4 Ticket:
1,5,6 / 1,4,5,6,8 / 1,6 / 1,3,8 = $18

Race 1 - Non-winners 2 races or $10,000 life - Pick 5

(2) MARYS PRETTY GIRL already has two pretty easy wins in this class and can get two more before she clears the earnings cap. I see no reason why she won’t win again. (1) QUEEN OF MARCS chased the top one home last time after missing a month of action. She should be chasing again for second from the pylons. (6) SOULDUST arrives in town for the leading trainer in terms of wins and earnings. Kennedy chose here over #1 and I’d rank it as a major driver change.

Race 2 - California Sire Stakes – 3YO Fillies

(5) DEBIT OR CREDIT seems to be improving as she gets experience and picked up her first career win last time. I’m going to stick with her with bigger money on the line this week. (3) PROM QUEEN has won three of four Sire Stakes races and clearly has a big shot. (1) SIERRA MYSTIQUE has but one qualifier on her card where she paced home nicely. It’s hard to say how good she is at this point.

Race 3 - Open Handicap

(6) MANDEVILLE has beaten the Open trotters in consecutive appearances and seems hard to go against at this point. Longo jumping back in the bike means the price should be over the odds-on threshold. (4) PRIDECREST gets the best post of the contenders but hasn’t been as sharp in recent weeks; mixed feelings. (5) ITS A HORSE is always a threat but can’t seem to get over the hump lately.

Race 4 - California Sire Stakes – 3YO Colts – Single 6

(4) ITS POINTLESS has won all of his four career starts by an average distance of 8.25 lengths. You’ll have to accept the 1-9 price and hope you somehow get 1-5. (2) ITSONLYMAKEBELIEVE should get around #1 easily enough and chase home #4 for his typical lesser award. (1) GOOD TO BE GLAD has a decent late kick when on his game, but that still might not get him second.

Race 5 - Non-winners 1 race in 2020

(1) IMMA TANK was third in this class on Saturday from an outside post. I expect Roland to fire him off the gate and go a long way, perhaps to the winner’s circle. (4) GENE EUGENE is coming off two awful efforts and normally I would back off using him, but I’m intrigued by the three-week break in action and the possibility that he is over whatever was bothering him. (5) ZACHARIAHS HONOR and (7) CENALTA DIESEL are horses to consider in the Pick 5 but neither spark the desire to run to the windows.

Race 6 - Non-winners $3,000 in last 5/$7,000 Claiming

Last week Nick Roland chose off (4) ALONG CAME JANE for (5) BRIAN’S MAGIC GIRL and the latter won. Now having driven both horses in consecutive weeks, he made the call to take ‘Jane’ and that intrigues me. The 7-year-old put up a big mile when Roland drove two starts back and should be forwardly placed with a big chance to win in this full field. (6) SING ALONG and (7) ROYAL MISTRESS finished one-two and heads-apart on Friday when the leaders fell apart in the lane despite slow fractions. Either could win with the right trip. (1) HI FIDELITY was empty in the pocket last week. She’s better than that and worth using in the exotics.

Race 7 - Non-winners 7 races or $35,000 life - **$50K GTD Pick 4**

(1) LODI EAT MY DUST won three straight with Plano as trainer/driver and now for some reason John Roberts takes over those duties. I’m not sure for the reasoning behind it, but this seems to be a good spot with the other contenders likely to be racing conservatively. (5) LICKCREEK SPEEDWAY probably should’ve won last time but Kennedy elected to baby her after she bobbled on the final turn the previous week. If placed in contention she has a big shot. (6) CALIFORNIA ROCK is an obvious player and the horse to beat, but he gets bet heavily and runs into trip trouble too often for me. (4) JOKER JOHN is in decent form and I’d be inclined to roll the dice if I knew Roland was going to leave hard this week; watch the warm-ups.

Race 8 - Non-winners $3,000 in last 5

(8) PART TIME hasn’t raced in almost three weeks but did score the last time he competed at this level. More than 50% of the horses sent out by this barn hit the board, so I have to think he’ll be live at what should be a good price. (1) KING OF THE CROP comes off a win and is certainly comfortable in this class. (4) GIGGLE MONSTER had every chance and hung last week. I respect his chances but he’s usually an underlay. (6) COZ AND EFFECT is another with a lot more seconds than wins on the year. The difference is he could offer some value.

Race 9 - Non-winners $1,500 in last 5

(6) MISTER HAT exits the claiming ranks into a class he hasn’t visited in many months. Plano trainee should be able to control this race. (1) BETTOR IN THE BANK won in this condition last week and has enough early speed to track from the pocket. (3) DEPENDLEBURY A tracked and came up just short last time. He’s a trip threat.

Race 10 - Non-winners 3-5 races or $15,000-$25,000 life/$6,000 Claiming

(8) MY MUDDY BUDDY hasn’t been in this cheap in months and the last time he was it resulted in a win. He has his work cut out from the outside post but if the price is 3-1 or higher, I’d jump on board. (3) THEREALGOODS should head to the front and is a clear threat to wire the field. (1) CUSTARDS DUNGEON beat #3 last week in wire-to-wire fashion. I can see him getting stuck in the pocket or the three-hole here, but he still has a shot. (2) NAKED BURNER can save ground and get into the lower exotics.