Cal Expo: Tuesday 3/31 Analysis
MEET STATS: 42-17-10-3 / $98.20 (+$14.20)
BEST BETS: 4-2-1-0 / $6.40 (-$1.60)
BEST BET: NIGHTGIRL (3rd)
SPOT PLAY: FRED AND ROZ (6th)
Race 1 - $3,000 Claiming – Pick 5
(3) URINGOODHANDS put in a big mile on the engine Saturday while losing to the heavy chalk. That was the first time he’s held well in over a month and perhaps that means he’s turned the corner. At the very least he should take them a long way. (6) LUKES COWBOY drops back down to the $3K claiming level where he’s done well, but that 1-for-46 record dating back to the start of 2019 is hard to endorse with much confidence. (5) LINCOLN has hit the board in his last three at this level and would only need to take a small step forward to win.
Race 2 - $4,000-$6,000 Claiming Handicap
We’ve watched the last two weeks as (6) AL’S BRIEFS set rated fractions and was caught at the wire. For whatever reason that strategy hasn’t worked and I expect Plano to change it up here by either trying to bottom-out the field or look to settle into a seat and wait for the stretch. He’s the top pick at 5-2 or better. (5) WESTERN DEVIL has found himself in recent weeks while out of the claiming ranks. Six-year-old is every bit as fast as these and capable at a price. If you missed (4) BEST DREAM SEEKER the last two weeks at 3-1, it doesn’t make much sense to jump on board tonight at odds-on. The 14-year-old could win, but I’m not on board for the short price. (1) WHO DAT LOVE has early speed and form. Can he handle the tougher competition?
Race 3 – Non-winners 5 races or $28,000 life
(1) NIGHTGIRL went a big uncovered mile last week only to lose to a fresher foe. Prior to that she had won two straight and she faces the same crew here as on Friday. She should prove tough to beat at short odds. (4) BROOKLYN MOONSHINE has early speed and decent form; very logical exacta player. (3) THAT’S HOW IT GOES popped off a career-best win two back but reverted to form last time. I guess with the right setup she could threaten.
Race 4 – Non-winners $2,500 in last 5 – $54,068 Single 6 Carryover
(2) GORGEOUS FOR REAL has been racing evenly lately while lacking that knockout stretch punch. I’m willing to wager that Plano can get this guy over the top, though anything below 2-1 would be an underlay. (5) WAITIN ONA RIVER looks fast enough on paper as he ships in from Fraser for a good barn. Eight-year-old switches from a driver who was 1-for-26 at Fraser to Cutting, who has as many wins as leading driver Luke Plano over the last couple of cards. (1) MARCED MAGIC came up with a career best mile on Saturday. Can he do it again on short rest? (6) CONTEMPORARY LEGEND keeps Kennedy over #5 and is off a win.
Race 5 – Non-winners $1,000 in last 5 or $1,500 in 2020
(6) ROCKINAROUNDHEAVEN didn’t show much in her first start since August, but she did improve three seconds off her qualifier. A similar jump this week should put her in play and her summertime past performances make her appear very competitive. (7) GORDY AGAIN somehow got locked in behind the leader in the stretch last time and that likely cost her second. If Svendsen can keep her close early, she should have a big shot, though she might get overbet. (9) MARILYN doesn’t seem to face much early speed to her inside. If she gets away soft, she could take them a long way. (8) LA DIVA DE ROSA is good enough to win but could be compromised starting from the outside post with no apparent early speed. (1) NOISY NORA gets a driver change to Roland. The last time he drove her she was put in play.
Race 6 – Non-winners 2 races or $22,000 life / $5,000 Claiming
(9) FRED AND ROZ yielded into the pocket and proceeded to run up on the leader, resulting in another break. It seems clear that winging it on the engine is the right move and dropping out of the tougher NW35000Life should provide him with the opportunity to succeed. (5) CUT A RUG couldn’t handle the uncovered trip last time while tackling a better group overall than tonight’s crew; definite player. (6) CENALTA EXPRESS was bet heavily and only showed life late in the mile in his first start since July. He could certainly improve. (8) BUDGIE SMUGGLER has won two straight but tackles tougher here from an outside post.
Race 7 – Open F&M Handicap - $50K GTD Pick 4
(7) ALWAYSALITTLEMORE simply had a bad night when last seen 11 days ago. There doesn’t appear to be much resistance in her way to the front this week and I’m expecting a game effort. (6) VELOCITY MCSWEETS easily rolled past the top pick last time after sitting a nice trip. The going is a bit tougher moving to the outside of the gate. Can she find early speed? (5) DANCINGONTHESAND grinds into the number every week but has lacked the killer instinct to win. Steve Wiseman-trained mare is capable, like many in this field, but she’ll need to step up.
Race 8 – Non-winners $751 in last 5 or $7,000 in 2019-20
(2) VICIOUS ALOICIOUS got shuffled a bit last week and closed well only to get blocked in deep stretch. He drops again tonight and Roland sticks. (3) TWOMICKEYTRIP looks awful on paper despite getting class relief here, but take a closer look at his recent lines. In his last two starts he had to work to keep up with fast paces, three back he was stuck on the rim and four back he stuck with a really fast clip. This race will be slow enough for him to compete if sharp enough. (7) HI HO’S LITTLE REV raced well on the drop to this level last week; contender. (10) DONTDOUBTTHELAKERS has the early speed to make some noise if the road to the top is smooth.
Race 9 – Non-winners $1,500 in last 5
(3) HE GRINS AGAIN was allowed to sit the pocket behind a 13-1 shot despite being 9-5 and ultimately that decision got him shuffled and cost him a potential victory. Let’s stick with him and hope for a better trip. (7) BECKYS DREAMBOAT gunned to the front and never looked back on Friday. He has the class to do it again. (1) SENGA NITRO raced well in this class last time and only needs a smooth trip to threaten.
Race 10 - $3,000/$4,000 Claiming Handicap
(8) DONTCLOSEYOUREYES has been the boss of this class lately and seems to get the job done regardless of trip. (2) GREEKONA finished well last week and only needs a smooth trip to threaten. (1) DANCER’S FANCY gets a better post and should be firing off the gate. (9) VELOCITY LAYLA drops down but a minor award may be her ceiling from the bad post.