Cal Expo: Saturday 3/28 Analysis
MEET STATS: 22-10-3-2 / $65.80 (+$21.80)
BEST BETS: 2-1-0-0 / $3.40 (-$0.60)
BEST BET: EXPLAINNOTCOMPLAIN (5th)
SPOT PLAY: MARYS PRETTY GIRL (4th)
$40K GTD PICK 4 Ticket:
1,2,3,4,5,7 / 5,7,9 / 6 / 1,2,4 = $10.80
Race 1 – Non-winners 1 race in 2020 – Pick 5
(2) OUTLAW BLUE BY YOU hasn’t done much since getting claimed five starts back but perhaps the four weeks of off-time will do him some good. Against this field of non-winners-in-2020, I’ll take a chance that Kennedy has him placed to win. (3) ZACHARIAHS HONOR drops out of some much tougher spots versus claimers. That doesn’t ensure him a win but certainly makes him a major player. (8) IMMA TANK picks up an aggressive driver and I’d love to see early speed. (4) PEDIGREE BLUE CHIP has been closing well while up in class but he’s still just 1 for his last 33.
Race 2 – Non-winners 1 race life
(6) GLITTER N GINGER showed early speed, roughed it on the rim and still held very well in another solid effort. She couldn’t ask for a better spot. (5) AHEAD BY A CENTURY gained mildly last time, which is kind of his typical race. At 0-for-20 it is hard to love him, but also hard to completely toss him out. (3) ONE GORGEOUS GAL yielded into the pocket and had every chance a week ago. That said, it was her fastest mile in just six career races so maybe she can improve.
Race 3 – Non-winners 3-5 races or $15,000-$25,000 life/$6,000 Claiming
(1) CUT A RUG power-brushed to the front in a slow second quarter and raced very well for the win in his first start since November. Three-year-old seems worth following. (4) THEREALGOODS has early speed to get involved and you really can’t fault his recent second-place finishes because they were behind two sharp foes. (2) SPORTS DRAMA improved dramatically last time. He can sit close here and get into the number.
Race 4 – Non-winners 2 races or $10,000 life
(4) MARYS PRETTY GIRL lost her first race of the year last Friday when facing a foe that would be 1-5 in here. I can’t make a logical case why she shouldn’t beat this soft field. (5) LAKOTA LAW has been racing up in class and Boyd did choose here over (2) JUNE MORNING, who has been racing decently of late. The latter adds Plano; makes a difference?
Race 5 – Non-winners $750 in last 5 or $7,000 in 2019/20 – Single 6
(3) EXPLAINNOTCOMPLAIN has been tackling much better foes than this group. I have to assume he’ll be tough to beat tonight. (6) RAMSAY was disappointing last Saturday. I’m going to give him one more chance to impress me. (7) URINGOODHANDS was used hard and stopped last time. He has big early speed and despite his apparent poor form, remains a dangerous commodity.
Race 6 – Non-winners $3,000 in last 5
I was certainly surprised when (4) COZ AND EFFECT left hard off the gate last week, but less so when he didn’t fire in the stretch. In this much shorter field, I expect his normal off-the-pace tactics and a huge stretch rally to get up in time. (1) MYSTIC RULER has early speed from the pylons and decent form to go along with it. If he can sit a pocket trip or set slow fractions, watch out! (5) TO THE LIMIT gets an interesting driver chance and could upset with the right trip.
Race 7 – Non-winners $1,500 in last 5 - $40K GTD Pick 4
(3) DEPENDLEBURY A reunites with Plano while down in class. He’s far from a reliable win-machine, but this looks like a good spot. (4) MARCED MAGIC certainly catches an easier field this week; using. (5) MYSTERY DRAGON hooks up with Roland again. He picked up a win and a third with him a few starts back. (1) SIN MACHQUEEN has raced very well since returning from a small break and might just be sharp enough to handle this crew.
Race 8 – Non-winners $35,000 life
(5) LICKCREEK SPEEDWAY threw a bobble in on the final turn costing her a couple of lengths but still sprinted home in 27 seconds. She isn’t the perfect horse, but if she is sitting second or third over and ahead of (7) CALIFORNIA ROCK, she can pull off the minor upset. The latter went back to off-the-pace tactics with Lasix added and it worked like a charm. He is the one to beat. (9) PLATINUM TIME could be an interesting player in here if Boyd guns off the wings of the gate. It’s unclear who will show early speed in this field, though there was plenty of action in this class last week. (2) JOKER JOHN rallied well from an impossible spot last Saturday.
Race 9 – Non-winners $4,500 in last 5 or $8,000 in 2020
(6) CAPITOL HILL dropped out of the Opens last week and finished strong to be second versus a better group. Mare should get more aggressive versus a group that is mostly climbing the class ladder. (5) VIRGIN EYES also gets away from the best at the track and adding Plano is nice plus. (1) ALONG CAME JANE comes off a win and has the early speed to be in prime position from the cones.
Race 10 – Non-winners $1,500 in last 5 or 1 race in 2020
(4) MARILYN finds a field without much clear early speed on paper and Kennedy might be able to ease her to the front and coast along uncontested. (1) GORDY AGAIN picked up Svendsen last week but was stuck in post eight. I’m willing to give her another chance. (2) OUTLAWINTRIGUEDBYU is not impossible in this spot but she is still 1 for her last 36. (5) SHOCK N AWE is down in class without any form to cling onto; maybe.