Cal Expo: Saturday 3/21 Analysis

MEET STATS: 11-6-1-1 / $49.60 (+$27.60)

BEST BET: HI HO JULIO (2ND)
SPOT PLAY: BLUE STAR MAVERICK (6TH)
$40K GTD Pick 4 Ticket:
4 / 1,5,8 / 2,5,6 / 2,3,4,5,7 = $9 (.20 ticket)

Race 1 – Non-winners $2,500 in last 5 – Pick 5

(2) VELOCITY LAYLA steps way up on paper but is plenty sharp and should have no issues getting around the #1 to make the front. Cutting should have her sitting first or second with a big shot to win again at a decent price. (3) MAGNIFIQUE just missed in this class last time as she tries to round into form. She’s certainly the class of the field. (6) SHOCK N AWE has a pair of seconds in her last two starts with this company. (5) HI FIDELITY is fast enough away from the gate to make the top and potentially get lucky.

Race 2 – Non-winners 2 races or $10,000 life

(5) HI HO JULIO hasn’t been racing badly lately but has been stuck in outside posts that have compromised his chances. Four-year-old finds the perfect spot this week and has no excuses for failure. (3) ROCKET POWER was super three starts back and then awful the last two times. Did the addition of Lasix hurt? Maybe Plano getting in the bike helps tonight? There are questions to answer. (2) JUNE MORNING has been racing well and the scratched-injured line last time doesn’t worry me since he only missed one week; using underneath.

Race 3 – Non-winners $500 in last 5

(6) LOOKSLIKEWEMADEIT took the plunge to a slightly higher condition last week and had no shot after they crawled to a 1:00 half. In a field where none of these have finished better than third in six weeks, this gal should be able to fire to the front and take them a long way. (4) SWEET ONE was a bit better with Lasix added last time; improves again? (2) LILAC LAUREY hasn’t been very good this year but does get a driver change here.

Race 4 - $8,000-$10,000 Claiming Handicap

Kennedy chose off (6) IT’S A GREAT WHITE last week and clearly saw the error of his ways as he’s back in the bike again behind this guy. Five-year-old has early speed and form. He should be pointed to the front. (3) FIVE CARD DRAW N had a bit of a shaky gait on the final turn but battled very gamely uncovered to just miss versus this group last week. A smooth trip could make a difference. (2) GIGGLE MONSTER got a perfect trip and finally got over his recent bout with seconditis. He’s a trip threat again and a big exotic threat regardless.

Race 5 – Open Handicap – Single 6

Coming off a month break, (7) PRIDECREST didn’t show early speed and lost all chance after chasing through very slow fractions. You have to expect he’ll be firing to the front here and prove tough to beat. (6) MANDEVILLE stole the Open last week in the slop and obviously is a threat again, especially if the top pick elects to race conservatively. (5) ITS A HORSE is as sharp as any horse in the field but his off-the-pace style puts him at a disadvantage.

Race 6 – Non-winners $3,500 in last 5

(3) BLUE STAR MAVERICK has rolled to consecutive victories and while there is other early speed signed on here, I expect him to assume control and prove tough to beat. (10) BUNKERHILL BILL hasn’t been able to get over the top for a win lately but most certainly will be leaving hard off the gate and should be in the exotics. (7) COZ AND EFFECT needs some pace help but will be a major threat if they go fast on the front. (6) SOME PLAYA got into the win column last time but didn’t travel any faster. Has he plateaued or is there more in the tank?

Race 7 – Non-winners $35,000 life

(1) PLATINUM TIME drew the inside in a field that seems to lack an abundance of early speed. Even if others go early, he should be close to the action with a big shot. (7) CALIFORNIA ROCK is the clear horse to beat but also one that burned plenty of money the last two weeks. I’m expecting a more conservative approach here and I’d demand 2-1 before taking a shot. (3) ASPLODE HANOVER gets some much needed post relief and could perk up; Kennedy drives. (2) REYS N A RUCKUS starts from the inside and is a trip player.

Race 8 – Non-winners $1,500 in last 5 - **$40K GTD Pick 4**

(4) SING ALONG has won three of her last four starts when in for a $4,000 claiming tag and all of them have been from outside posts. She’s clearly the one to beat at what should be odds-on. (3) LA DIVA DE ROSA is very comfortable at this level but seems more like an exotics player who if things worked out perfectly could win. (5) PLACE AT THE BEACH drops to the level of her last win but offers no recent form. (2) MARILYN has early speed and may be sitting the pocket behind the favorite.

Race 9 – Non-winners $750 in last 5

(8) RAMSAY missed a year of action and still raced very well to finished second a week ago. Any small step forward should make him a big factor. (5) HERECOMESTHETHUNDR qualified back nicely. He has the early speed to make noise here and perhaps keep going. (1) SIN MACHQUEEN came back from a two-month break with a solid effort and is certainly a fit in this class. (10) WET SHARK got the jump on the top pick and bested him by a half-length last time; post 10 makes it tough tonight.

Race 10 – Non-winners 3-5 races or $15,000-$25,000 life

(6) LODI EAT MY DUST beat most of these last week at 1-2 and the only horse that came close to him isn’t entered. (5) FOX VALLEY B GUMP is in decent form but has been too far back to threaten. If Cutting can get him in position, I wouldn’t be shocked if he upset. (2) THEREALGOODS has early speed and form. He should be in position to succeed.

Race 11 – Non-winners $500 in last 5

(7) BURNTISLAND BILLY doesn’t really have a nose for the wire but does tackle the easiest field he has seen in a long time. I’ll roll with him one more time. (4) GUNNY WILSON showed some life on the switch to this class a week ago. (2) CANTHOLDMEBACKMACK is a capable horse if he is allowed to set soft fractions on the engine, but I’m not sure the price will be worth the risk here.