Cal Expo: Friday 3/27 Analysis

MEET STATS: 22-10-3-2 / $65.80 (+$21.80)
BEST BETS: 2-1-0-0 / $3.40 (-$0.60)
BEST BET: HI HO’S LITTLE REV (1st)
SPOT PLAY: ALMOST CUT MY HAIR (7th)
Pick-4 Ticket: 4,5 / 3,10 / 2,3,5,6 / 4,6,7 = $9.60

Race 1 – Non-winners $750 in last 5 – Pick 5

(1) HI HO’S LITTLE REV has dealt with a string of bad posts dating back to February and the last time he drew well it was against better company. This looks like a perfect spot. (7) PANEDICTINE has no recent form so it was odd to see Magee choose him over #’s 2 and 6. That said, he gets into this class on the AE condition and he shows some good races when at the bottom condition. (4) GUNNY WILSON dropped out of the same $3,000 claiming races as #7 and responded nicely in recent weeks; not impossible. (8) BECKYS DREAMBOAT drops and adds the track’s top driver.

Race 2 – Non-winners 3-5 races or $15,000-$25,000 life / $6,000 Claiming

(3) BUDGIE SMUGGLER picked up Roland last week and the result was a career-best mile, though it didn’t hurt that the favorite made a break while following a dull foe. Anything close to a repeat performance will make him tough. (1) VILLA FOR RENT moves to the pole position and should show early speed. (7) CROOKSHANKS raced well and finished just behind #1 in a quick mile on Friday. That should have him tight.

Race 3 - $4,000-$6,000 Claiming Handicap

(4) BEST DREAM SEEKER powered home nicely for the win last week and seems to be in a perfect spot here to gun to the front and sit the pocket or wait and potentially pick up cover. (6) AL’S BRIEFS seems destined to push to the front and go a long way but his recent wins have been from off cover. (5) MUSICIAN gets a better post to work with and a new driver. The last time Svendsen was in the bike he was second in this class.

Race 4 - $3,000 Claiming

(5) WHO DAT LOVE beat a couple of these while finishing fifth in a much tougher race on Friday. Veteran drops back down to a straight $3K claimer and should take charge. (6) FLY AWAY hasn’t drawn well in forever and is once again stuck outside. If the trip works out from off the pace, he could win. (2) LINCOLN hasn’t been able to stay with the top choice in recent races but is typically close enough to get a nice check.

Race 5 – Non-winners $4,500 in last 5 - **$40,644 Single 6 Carryover**

(6) ROYAL MISTRESS stays in the same class but faces a much softer group this week and Kennedy is back in the bike. I expect her to take care of business. (3) SING ALONG has early speed and has been racing well. She’ll need her A-game to beat the top one but should at least been in good position. (7) KISS ON THE LIPS has been trapped along the cones in consecutive starts with no chance to stretch her legs, so her PP lines are deceptive.

Race 6 – Non-winners 5 races or $28,000 life

(3) NIGHTGIRL has won four of her last six races and she’s versatile enough to take control or come from off cover; obvious one to beat. (4) THATS HOW IT GOES came up big at 11-1 last time and a repeat mile puts her right there versus these. (5) SAND AND ROCKS closed ok from an impossible spot on Friday. At 3-for-46 lifetime, backing her on top is shaky, but I’d like to see her get a smooth trip before discounting her chances completely. (7) BROOKLYN MOONSHINE has the early speed to make some noise and get into the number.

Race 7 – Non-winners $3,000-$5,000 in last 5/$8,000 Claiming - **$30K GTD Pick 4**

(5) ALMOST CUT MY HAIR drops out of the Open ranks where he was facing much better foes. This is clearly his race to win or lose. (4) BUNKERHILL BILL went a big mile to be second on Saturday and you know he’s also capable of firing to the front; main danger. (2) GIGGLE MONSTER is a perfect-trip threat to win but more of an exotics player for me.

Race 8 - $3,000/$4,000 Claiming Handicap

(3) GREEKONA shows good recent form and her early speed means she’ll be in a position to succeed versus a questionable group. (10) DONTCLOSEYOUREYES was handicapped outside because she’s in for the higher claiming price. Despite the bad starting spot, she’s the one to beat. (8) YOUROLDLOV-ELETTER was stuck behind a gapper along the cones and closed reasonably well when clear last week. (9) DANCER’S FANCY wasn’t awful in her return from a break in action. We’ve seen Roland ‘wake up’ plenty of horses and I wouldn’t be shocked if that happened here.

Race 9 – Non-winners $1,500 in last 5

(3) HE GRINS AGAIN left last week in that wicked 26 2/5 opening quarter and still had something left on the end of the mile with a 27 3/5 kicker. He looks to be rounding into form and the price should be fair. (5) FOX VALLEY HOSS has been closing well with no shot lately. Something tells me we may see early speed this week. (6) ROCKIN EDDIE made a visually impressive move and held on last time. He might be able to handle this group with the right trip. (2) VICIOUS ALOICIOUS went crazy fractions and paid the price on Friday. Before that he had post 9 and prior to that start went uncovered. I can make enough excuses to use him in the Pick 4.

Race 10 – Non-winners $1,500 in last 5

(4) BETTOR IN THE BANK had to deal with some stretch traffic last time and didn’t exactly get good trips in previous starts. As long as Kennedy avoids trouble this classy old-timer should be a win player. (6) GRAVELSINMYTRAVELS wasn’t going very far from an outside post in his most recent start. Any smooth trip could put him in the winner’s circle. (2) BET TOGETHER chased a quick pace and held well last time. I prefer him underneath but wouldn’t be shocked if he won. (7) MR VARSITY is down in class and at least worth some consideration. (3) WESTERN DEVIL raced well on the class drop last time. This spot is tougher.