Cal Expo: Friday 3/20 Analysis

BEST BET: NIGHTGIRL ( 2nd)
SPOT PLAY: ALWAYSALITTLEMORE (3rd)

Race 1 – Non-winners $2,000 in last 5 – Pick 5

(5) MYSTIC RULER was part of a fast 55-second opening half and that clearly sapped some of his late energy on Saturday. His prior form is fine and I expected to see him controlling the race. (6) FOX VALLEY HOSS was the opposite of the top pick since he chased slower fractions and even a 27 3/5 final kicker couldn’t make much of a dent in the leaders margin. He’s a big threat here. (1) CONTEMPORAY LEGEND has been having trouble lasting the mile on the engine. If Kennedy can work out a pocket trip that could make a difference.

Race 2 – Non-winners 2 races or $10,000 life

(2) NIGHTGIRL has won in this class multiple times and even beaten NW4 company. With anything close to her best race, she’s too fast for these. (1) MARYS PRETTY GIRL has posted two pretty wins since coming back from a long break but I would argue that she gave all she had last time and needs more speed to beat the top pick. (4) CROOKSHANKS moves back to the NW2 level where he was second and third a handful of starts back.

Race 3 – Open Handicap F&M

(6) ALWAYSALITTLEMORE gave pocket-sitter Bertha Vanation a chance to beat her by going very slow on the front and that foe out-sprinted her to the wire. Six-year-old had finished first in four of her previous five races versus this type and I expect she’ll be more aggressive here. (2) VELOCITY MCSWEETS sprinted home in 26 3/5 with no shot behind the top pick because the pace was so slow, and she was the favorite. Now in her second start since November I expect to see much more; very dangerous. (5) BERTHA VANATION deserves some respect off a victory last time and a string of solid efforts.

Race 4 – Non-winners $2,000 in last 5

(2) BETTOR IN THE BANK hasn’t been to the winner’s circle in quite some time but may have finally found the right spot this week. When he dropped to this level he put in his best race in some time. (1) BET TOGETHER exits claimers and gets the track’s top pilot in Plano, but if the top one shows up, he’s racing for second. (6) KING OF THE CROP was used hard last time and was done in by a tough post in his prior start. With the right trip, he can win. (3) VICIOUS ALOICIOUS gets a big post shift tonight. In his prior start he took too much air. Dropping again, he’s a reasonable longshot play.

Race 5 – Open Handicap - **$31,188 Single 6 Carryover**

(6) HEZA REAL DIAMOND has missed three weeks, which is a slight concern, but he’s also won four of five races in this class with his only loss by a neck to (4) ALLMYX’SLIVENTEXAS. Four-year-old deserves the top call but the latter is no slouch and very dangerous out of the pocket. (5) BESTINTHEBUSINESS is a sharp horse but one better used underneath in the exotics.

Race 6 – Non-winners 1 race life

(6) CUT A RUG returns from winter vacation off a solid qualifier and looks every bit as good as any of these. (3) NUTS N HONEY adds Lasix and might just turn her career around; that’s the hope. (5) GLITTER N GINGER likes to knock on the door but rarely comes in; using underneath.

Race 7 - $4,000-$6,000 Claiming Handicap

(7) BEST DREAM SEEKER certainly has the speed to make the top and perhaps sit a pocket trip behind likely favorite (10) AL’S BRIEFS, who parlayed a good trip into a victory last time. ‘Dream Seeker’ also had a nice three-hole journey last time and perhaps sitting the pocket here would keep him close enough to win. (1) WHO DAT LOVE steps up off a pair of wins and might just be sharp enough to handle these. (5) ZACHARIAHS HONOR attacked the leader and tired last time. While he’s winless on the year, I wouldn’t be shocked if he won with a smooth trip.

Race 8 – Non-winners $1,000 in last 5 - **$30K GTD Pick 4**

This race is loaded with horses dropping in class and provides a good handicapping puzzle to kick off the Pick 4. (4) DONTDOUBTTHELAKERS has a bit of a class edge as one of the elders in the field. He raced well way up in class the last time Plano sat in the bike. (7) HI HO’S LITTLE REV can’t catch a break from the post Gods. It’s another bad starting spot but I wouldn’t count him out at what should be a price. (9) WESTERN DEVIL has displayed early speed in the past and it’s not really clear which horse will fire off the gate here; longshot player? (5) IMMA TANK raced well in both recent starts at this condition.

Race 9 – Non-winners $4,500 in last 5

(6) DELIGHTFULLY WILD went way too fast and stopped as anticipated last time. That mile should have her plenty sharp and the driver change here is interesting as well. (4) EXSQUEEZEME rode a perfect trip to victory last week. He’s a player again but demand a decent price. (8) ROYAL MISTRESS attacked first-over and faded in the stretch last time. If Magee can work out a trip this gal has a shot. (5) CAPITOL HILL had no shot last time. She could be interesting if Cutting fires off the gate.

Race 10 – Non-winners $25,000 life

(3) THATS HOW IT GOES finds a field with a decent amount of early speed (she has some too if Kennedy wants to use it) and might be able to sit chilly early and pounce when it matters. (2) BROOKLYN MOONSHINE and (4) HAGGINATTHEBEACH are two of the potential early speed players. If either gets away soft or sits the pocket trip, they can clearly win. (5) CASEY N GRINEGAN has been racing rather well. With just three career wins she might not get the job done, but the trip could work out from off the pace.

Race 11 - $3,000-$4,000 Claiming Handicap

(8) DONTCLOSEYOUREYES elected to take back last time and sealed her fate. I have to think she’ll be firing hard early against this soft field. (4) DOUBLE MYSTERY moves to a better post and should be put in play. (5) OUTLAWINTRIGUEDBYU broke last time in the slop but prior to that she was making bids, which is a positive. (7) GREEKONA displayed early speed last time and raced well. Doing so again could hurt the top pick a bit.