Byron King's Belmont Stakes analysis
Although some might not want to play DESTIN in the Belmont Stakes due to his preparation – with the race marking just his second start in 13 weeks – it means little to me. The time off was not the result of some publicized setback. Rather, the extensive spacing was made by his connections to have him fresh for the Triple Crown after the horse produced a career-best effort in winning the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12.
His Kentucky Derby effort was deceptively good. Off poorly, he was 11th after a quarter-mile, buried in traffic and much farther off the pace than many expected this usually stalking runner to be. From there, he had every right to get discouraged, but he fought on, advancing under premature encouragement to reach third between calls in early stretch before tiring to sixth.
With a better start and a forward position, away from the traffic at the back, expect a much-improved performance in the Belmont. And the price should be right, perhaps drifting to as high as 10-1 odds.
EXAGGERATOR is obviously the most likely winner, having won the Preakness after a runner-up finish in the Derby, but it is difficult to get enthused about backing him at a short price. There is simply not a lot of reward for the risk that he could regress while going the Belmont’s 1 1/2-mile distance after two prior races in the Triple Crown. He is 9-5 on the line and probably starts closer to 6-5.
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS rallied belatedly in the Derby, finishing a fast-closing fifth, a couple of heads away from being third. And three of the four horses who finished in front of him – with the exception of runner-up Exaggerator – are not running in the Belmont. He is a consistent horse and seemingly well suited to 1 1/2 miles.
CREATOR made such dramatic progress to go from a maiden to a Grade 1 stakes winner in a couple of months that regression was always a possibility in the Derby, and that seemed to play out. He also had traffic difficulty, running up on the heels of horses when rallying while leaving the second turn, and could only pass tired horses thereafter. He is a physically striking horse, one whose flashy gray coat exudes vibrant health.