Byron King's Belmont Stakes analysis

1. Materiality
2. Frosted
3. American Pharoah
4. Keen Ice

Five weeks ago, MATERIALITY was my value-based choice to win the Kentucky Derby, and I disappointedly watched him lose all chance when he broke slowly and was shuffled back shortly thereafter while along the inside. Unaccustomed to racing from well off the pace and taking dirt behind horses, he struggled passing the stands for the first time, with his feet going up and down as if running uphill – known as “climbing” in racing terminology.

I turned my binoculars elsewhere at that point, figuring he would be among the rear half of the field after such early trouble. And it was only later when viewing replays that it sank in how well he ultimately ran to get in gear and rally from 13th to be sixth.

This does not mean he would have beaten Derby winner AMERICAN PHAROAH with a clean trip. But there is no doubt in my mind that he would have been closer than 7 3/4 lengths back at the finish with better racing luck.

The Derby marked the first loss for Materiality in four starts, following a 3-for-3 campaign in Florida this winter in which he capped that meet by winning the Florida Derby. His winning effort in the Florida Derby earned him a 110 Beyer Speed Figure, superior to any Beyer for American Pharoah.

Materiality drew well in the Belmont as the outside speed, and from that position, jockey John Velazquez should be able to place him in a favorable pressing position outside of American Pharoah.

FROSTED also has an upset chance. A wide fourth in the Kentucky Derby after winning the Wood Memorial, Frosted brings into the race some of the best form, and he, like Materiality, has the benefit of running at his current base at Belmont Park after five weeks of rest.

If Materiality and American Pharoah hook up prematurely in a battle, he would be a closer in line to benefit.

American Pharoah, as everyone is aware, is trying to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. But too many people will be betting him with their hearts, wanting to see history. Following 12 straight losses by similar types in the Belmont, I see little upside to betting him to win at his 3-5 morning-line odds – though my respect for the horse is immense.

As for the others, KEEN ICE probably isn’t fast enough to win but does looks like a horse who could get the 1 1/2-mile Belmont distance and rally into the exotics at a price.