Byron King's 2019 Kentucky Derby analysis

Believing that the finest 3-year-old preps were in Arkansas over the past couple of months, I’ve picked IMPROBABLE to win Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. After an unbeaten campaign at 2, he seems to have lost a little popularity after defeats in his two starts as a 3-year-old, both at Oaklawn Park. In each loss, he had excuses while still performing well to be second. He returned from a layoff and raced wide in his first start of the year in a division of the Rebel and then grew anxious in the starting game before the Arkansas Derby, necessitating a reload. Even so, he was a clear runner-up, well ahead of everyone but Omaha Beach, who has been scratched from the Derby.

Blinkers, added for the Arkansas Derby, are removed, and five-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert has emphasized gate schooling in the lead-up to Saturday’s race. He also has move-forward potential with a return to Churchill Downs, where he was a five-length winner of the Street Sense Stakes on the Breeders’ Cup undercard last fall.

GAME WINNER also appears poised for a top effort. Last year’s champion juvenile male, he shares similarities with barnmate Improbable. Both were unbeaten last year and then twice second in as many races in 2019 behind classy, talented colts. Omaha Beach nosed him out in a division of the Rebel, and Roadster defeated him by a half-length in the April 6 Santa Anita Derby, where he was hung wide throughout. Like the top selection, he is established at Churchill Downs, having won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over the surface in November.

By contrast, MAXIMUM SECURITY has only raced at Gulfstream Park in Florida, where he was untouchable, winning all four of his starts, including the Florida Derby. His early speed makes him dangerous given the withdrawal of Omaha Beach, who had been expected to dial up pace pressure down the backstretch.

To create the potential for a rich exotics payoff, longshots SPINOFF, COUNTRY HOUSE, and CUTTING HUMOR merit use underneath in the gimmicks – just one bomb can make the Derby superfecta return handsomely. Spinoff ran second in the Louisiana Derby with a wide trip. Country House rallied to be third in a talent-laden Arkansas Derby. And Cutting Humor stalked and pounced to take the Sunland Derby over a quality foe in the Preakness-bound Anothertwistafate.