Byron King: Taris even better than she looks in Honeybee
To some, Taris might appear a vulnerable morning-line favorite in Saturday’s Grade 3 Honeybee at Oaklawn Park. No doubt being untested around two turns and not having raced or breezed at the track are disadvantages.
Still others might be discouraged that she comes off merely a 72 Beyer Speed Figure, earned in winning the Wide Country Stakes by 5 1/2 lengths at Laurel Jan. 25 – a last-race figure surpassed by six of her 10 Honeybee rivals.
But to these eyes, she isn’t vulnerable – rather, she is a filly likely to win rather comfortably. One merely needs to watch replays of her two wins to know that she is a filly of high quality, and though the Wide Country wasn’t fast by Beyer Figure standards, it was a race that has proven better than the modest final time and figure.
Of the three fillies to run back from the race, two won their next race and all three ran Beyers higher than what they posted in the Wide Country. Runner-up Steady N Love won a first-level allowance at Laurel by over 20 lengths, jumping from a 60 Beyer to a 77; third-place New Zone ran fifth in her next race, but still managed to move up Beyerwise from a 52 to a 58; and fifth-place Jonesin for Jerry came back from a 19-length thumping to win an allowance by 5 3/4 lengths, going from a 32 Beyer to an 82.
It’s not as if we don’t know Taris is quick. In winning her preceding start at Aqueduct, she ran away to an 11 3/4-length front-running score, good for an 88 Beyer.
As for stretching out from seven furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, she has the pedigree to manage it. Bred by Claiborne Farm, Taris is by Flatter, a son of Belmont winner A.P. Indy, and she is out of the Theatrical mare Comedy.
Jockey Clinton Potts should be able to utilize her speed from post 2 to take command early, and one would think that opposing riders on those fillies outside of her won’t want to ruin their chances by dueling with her.
Taris should lead throughout.
China Doll Stakes
Drawing post 11 can at times be a reason to play against a horse when she is racing on grass with a relatively short run to the first turn, but that’s not a reason to avoid On the Backstreets in the China Doll Stakes at Santa Anita Saturday.
With little speed in the one-mile turf race, the tactical On the Backstreets should be able to secure a favorable position despite her post, likely sitting just off the pace on the outside, just as she did in winning her last race when sprinting down the hill at Santa Anita.
Though her fine turf form is not easily missed, which will lead to her fair share of support, a couple of flashy first-out winners, Nashoba’s Gold and Diversy Harbor, seem likely to attract enough attention to make the price on On the Backstreets palatable.
I expect On the Backstreets will follow Uzziel, a wire-to-wire winner of a Golden Gate sprint Jan. 31, and quicken away from her opponents in the lane, just as she did in two turf sprint victories earlier this year.
Santa Anita Handicap
With Game On Dude having lost three in a row, including the San Antonio in which he faded to fifth after dueling for the lead, trainer Bob Baffert could have easily opted to freshen him and start over during the second half of the year.
He knows who is in the Santa Anita Handicap Saturday – none other than Mucho Macho Man and Will Take Charge, horses that whipped Game On Dude in the Breeders’ Cup Classic over this track and distance Nov. 2.
[Santa Anita Handicap: Get PPs, watch Saturday's card live]
Yet Baffert is giving Game On Dude another chance, and when a Hall of Famer like Baffert shows that kind of confidence, it trumps a horse’s questionable form – at least it does to me when the horse isn’t favored.
Game On Dude won’t be favored. He is the 5-2 third choice on the morning line of Santa Anita’s Jon White, and if Mucho Macho Man and Will Take Charge get bet down, as I expect, Game On Dude could be 3-1 at post time.
At those odds, backing Baffert in the Big Cap is the bet.