Byron King: Simmstown's credentials make him Hal's Hope value

It is not often that a horse coming off a stakes victory with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure is a 10-1 shot in a Grade 3 race, much less when the horse is 2 for 4 over the racetrack and conditioned by a high-percentage trainer. These types are usually the favorite, or at least among the favorites, depending on the level of competition.

But Simmstown is that fat 10-1 price in Saturday’s Hal’s Hope at Gulfstream Park, despite having the aforementioned qualifications. And if he sticks anywhere close to that 10-1 morning line, he warrants a bet.

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There are two primary reasons why he seems to have been overlooked – and hopefully still will be by post time. He is a horse that was still eligible for a first-level allowance heading into August. And he is a horse that also was quite ordinary for the first two-thirds of his career.

However, he has been quite dependable over that most-recent third, which has come under the care of trainer Marty Wolfson. Wolfson has elevated the performance of Simmstown, as he has many other horses owned by Silverton Farm when they have been transferred to him in recent years.

So the dramatic improvement of this horse should not be regarded as fluky, but rather something we have seen before.

Simmstown is not a sure thing in the Hal’s Hope. It drew a deep and contentious field, and horses such as Csaba, Jackson Bend, Neck ’n Neck, Goodtimehadbyall, and Uncaptured are legitimate contenders.

But does Simmstown have better than a 10-1 shot of victory? Yes, he does.

This is a horse that won the Kenny Noe Jr. Handicap at Calder going a distance shorter than his best – 6 1/2 furlongs – and now he is back going a one-turn mile, a distance over which he twice won at Gulfstream last year.

In an Oct. 5 victory at Gulfstream, he succeeded by stalking the pace along the inside before angling out for the stretch – just the kind of trip he might just get again in the Hal’s Hope, given that he is drawn on the fence.

He’s the value play of the Saturday Gulfstream card.

Fort Lauderdale

A race before the Hal’s Hope is the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale, and I like Summer Front, provided the race stays on the turf.

This is a horse at the top of his game again after going off form a bit toward the second half of his 3-year-old campaign in 2012. Last year at 4, he won 2 of 5 starts, but arguably his finest race ever came in a loss in the Grade 2 Citation at Hollywood Park on Nov. 29.

Finishing with a flourish and battling the length of the stretch with the classy Silentio, he missed by an inch in a head-bobbing photo. He was simply unlucky not to have won, with his head back at the moment Silentio was bobbing forward.

Seven for 12 on turf, he is a horse perfectly suited to the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Fort Lauderdale. And he also has performed well on the Gulfstream Park turf course, with a win and a third in two local starts. He fires on firm and good courses and rates on top unless the grass comes up soft or yielding.

Intriguing at his morning line of 8-1 is Slumber, though I suspect that price will be cut in half. Fourth in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, he weakened to sixth as the favorite in the Canadian International on yielding ground.

He, like Summer Front, appears to perform best on good or firm turf. Use him with the top choice in the exotics.

San Pasqual

Meanwhile, the play out West in the Grade 2 San Pasqual is Rousing Sermon, though he disappointed somewhat with a third in the Native Diver at Hollywood Park in his last race.

He seemed a little disinterested that day, remaining even paced throughout, but expect to see a better performance at Santa Anita, where he twice ran quickly in October.

He looks to get a good outside pressing/stalking trip behind stablemate Blueskiesnrainbows and Majestic City – both of whom prefer to race on or very close to the lead.