Byron King: Rousing Sermon might get ideal trip in Native Diver

The race of the weekend is Saturday’s $750,000 CashCall Futurity at Betfair Hollywood Park. It drew 13 juveniles, including five or six who are on the shortlist of early Kentucky Derby prospects, most notably Tamarando, Tap It Rich, and Shared Belief.

The size of the field will make the race an appealing wagering contest for some, but in analyzing the field, I prefer to merely watch this one, not having an opinion that differs from how the betting is expected to go.

I do have the betting itch earlier in the card, specifically in the Grade 3 Native Diver, which drew a field of nine.

The play is Rousing Sermon, who has shown marked improvement in recent months after struggling throughout much of 2012 and early 2013. He has two wins with a second sandwiched in between in three races since Oct. 3 – while showing much more positional speed than he did earlier in his career.

This is a horse who once was a come-from-the-clouds runner who closed for second, beaten a neck, in the 2011 CashCall Futurity after being in 10th place with a furlong remaining.

Gone are those late-closing tactics. Over his last three races, he has raced in either second or third place after a quarter-mile, never more than 1 1/2 lengths behind the leader.

Such a style should serve him well in the Native Diver, placing him in the clear on the outside, just behind stablemate Blueskiesnrainbows and perhaps Slim Shadey.

Beyond his form and tactical speed, it seems that several of his key rivals are vulnerable. Setsuko is an infrequent winner who hasn’t started since March 2012, Slim Shadey has never raced on anything but turf in his 31-race career, and Blueskiesnrainbows comes off a runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Marathon in which most of the horses staggered home.

Sugar Swirl: Heart Stealer to stalk

Across the country at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, a short field of six female sprinters is entered in the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl going six furlongs. The race is speed-laden, with five entrants who want to race on the lead or in close proximity to the pace.

With all the speed in the lineup, it seems best to look for a horse who can win from a pressing or stalking position. And that horse appears to be Heart Stealer. Her two victories have come after tracking the leader, a length off the pace.

Although beaten by Sugar Swirl morning-line favorite R Free Roll at Calder last out in the Bold World Handicap, conditions are different in the Sugar Swirl.

Obviously, there is a change in venue – a key due to R Free Roll’s affinity for Calder, where she is 4 for 7. By comparison, she has two seconds and a third in three races elsewhere.

She also is a need-the-lead type, and with Crazy About Me likely to be sent from the fence and at least another filly or two set to challenge early, it appears unlikely that R Free Roll will get the trip she received in the Bold World, where Heart Stealer applied only token early pressure to her.

This puts R Free Roll in a position to regress and leaves Heart Stealer as the most likely winner.

Taking a stand against String King

Lastly, it is Louisiana Champions Day at Fair Grounds in New Orleans on Saturday, and the featured Champions Day Classic is a little more intriguing than normal this year, as it matches Sunbean, likely the best distance dirt horse in Louisiana, against String King, who has been dominant against Louisiana-breds on turf.

My strategy is to toss String King from the exotics, hoping at the very least to get him out of the exacta and perhaps out of the trifecta. Although I respect the class and consistency he has shown on grass, it likely won’t transfer to the Fair Grounds main track.

He is 2 for 6 on dirt, compared with 9 for 20 on turf, and both of the dirt wins came at Louisiana Downs in off-the-grass races in which he was able to secure easy leads. Essentially, he beat up on depleted fields, never getting his face dirty. He might not be so fortunate in the Louisiana Champions Day Classic. There is other speed, and String King hasn’t been as forwardly placed lately.

The strategy is to key Sunbean on top, using longshot One King’s Man beneath him, along with Populist Politics and perhaps Hud’s Rebellion. Use of Hud’s Rebellion in exotics depends on whether he goes in the Classic or is scratched in favor of the Louisiana Champions Day Turf earlier on the card.