Byron King: Room Service capable on Keeneland Polytrack

Saturday is filled with stakes. Nine graded races are on the docket, with six Grade 1 races, highlighted by the $1 million Wood Memorial and the $1 million Santa Anita Derby.

Although those Kentucky Derby preps are intriguing contests, from a wagering perspective, I’m most excited about a trio of races for 3-year-old fillies this Saturday: the Ashland at Keeneland, the Santa Anita Oaks, and the Fantasy at Oaklawn.

Here is an analysis of those races, and my choices.

Ashland Stakes

In a year when many major stakes for 3-year-old fillies have drawn short fields, the Ashland offers a contrast. The Grade 1 Ashland attracted 13 horses to race 1 1/16 miles on Polytrack, the synthetic material Keeneland announced Wednesday it will replace with dirt this summer.

The depth of the field is in great part due to turf horses typically handling Polytrack better than dirt. And without a Grade 1 on the grass with a $500,000 purse in the immediate future, the owners and trainers of these turf fillies are naturally keen to take their synthetic shot.

My selection, Room Service, falls into the turf-to-synthetic camp, having won the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride last out March 2 at Gulfstream Park. If she repeats that effort on Polytrack, it could put her back in the winner’s circle.

The Herecomesthebride was the best race of her five-race career. Her victory earned an 89 Beyer Speed Figure, the second-highest last-race Beyer in the Ashland behind the 95 that Thank You Marylou posted on dirt, a surface on which speed figures tend to come back higher.

To put the 89 Beyer from the late-running Room Service in proper perspective, it is the highest Beyer earned by a 3-year-old filly in a turf stakes this year.

Some bettors will be discouraged to see that the jockey who rode Room Service in the Herecomesthebride, Joel Rosario, is not back aboard and is instead riding Rosalind in the Ashland. But if that makes Room Service a tick or two higher on the odds board, I’m fine with the Rosario departure.

Trainer Wayne Catalano has a history of success with jockey Shaun Bridgmohan, Room Service’s new rider, with the duo having gone 9 for 35 together over the past three years, good for a 26 percent win rate and a $3.38 return on investment.

Room Service makes her first start on synthetic in the Ashland, and Catalano has favorable stats with such horses. Not counting debuting horses, over the last five years, he has won at a 16 percent clip at Keeneland with such types while generating a $2.51 ROI.

Add that all up, and she is the selection to pull a mild upset in a good field headlined by Testa Rossi.

Santa Anita Oaks

Value is a little harder to find in the Santa Anita Oaks, which drew an eight-horse field, with Fashion Plate and Ria Antonia the favorites.

I was disappointed with Ria Antonia’s comeback, where she was fourth in the Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds, and I think she will be overbet Saturday in her first start for trainer Bob Baffert. There is money to be made if she finishes out of the exacta.

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So, in the exacta, I’ll key the speedy Fashion Plate on top of mild outsiders Arethusa and Artemis.

If Ria Antonia finishes in the top two and beats me, so be it. But she seems more likely to run out of the exacta than the in-form Fashion Plate.

Fantasy Stakes

Turning to Oaklawn, I’m hopeful that Fantasy bettors will focus on the graded winners Stopchargingmaria and Euphrosyne, who was elevated to first upon the disqualification of Sugar Shock for interference in the Grade 3 Honeybee last month.

Although Euphrosyne was fouled and deserving of being placed first, Sugar Shock was likely the superior filly. She was on her way to victory in early stretch in that race, but once she came under the whip from jockey Channing Hill, she ducked left and right, losing all focus.

Sugar Shock returns in the Fantasy, and I expect Hill will ride her differently, relying on finesse and a hand ride. Such tactics likely will get Sugar Shock the graded win she deserves.