Byron King: Poker Player is value shot of Lexington

When a turf horse races on a synthetic track, the assumption is the horse will take to the surface. And like most assumptions, blindly believing in one can be dangerous. Some turf horses handle the switch, but by no means is it a given.

Consider Saturday’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. Among the entrants are several notable contenders shifting from turf to Polytrack – including favorites Mr Speaker and Divine Oath.

In checking the DRF Formulator statistics for all eight of the trainers with horses entered in Lexington, I found that on average six out of 10 of their past turf-to-synthetic starters finished off the board. The specific numbers over the past 5 years for their turf-to-synthetic runners: 21 percent winners with 41 percent in the top three, with an average win mutuel of $1.70 for a $2 bet.

With that in mind, I can’t help but try to beat Mr Speaker and Divine Oath in the Lexington – though I respect their talent, as well as the skill of their trainers.

I’ll take longshot Poker Player, a horse proven at Keeneland, where he won the off-the-turf Bourbon Stakes over the Polytrack last fall.

Admittedly, his last two starts – a second in the John Battaglia and a 10th in the Spiral, both at Turfway – don’t inspire, but the key is the return to Keeneland.

Turfway has much more kickback than Keeneland, which perhaps contributed to late-running Poker Player not running as well at Turfway as he had at Keeneland last fall. He also gets blinkers off, which were on for his last two starts.

Now in the third start of his form cycle, he should be primed physically for one of his better efforts. At 10-1 on the morning line – and quite likely to go higher come post time – he is the value play of the race.

Norumbega ready for top effort

A race before at Keeneland, I like Norumbega in the Ben Ali – going dirt to synthetic after a promising second-place finish in the Skip Away in his seasonal bow at Gulfstream Park on March 29. This is a horse who won under these conditions when racing at Keeneland last fall, winning a 1 1/8-mile allowance race on the Polytrack on Oct. 16.

Now with that comeback race behind him, and returning to a Polytrack surface over which he has shown an affinity, he looks ready for a top effort.

Obviously, veteran Newsdad will be tough to beat in the Bel Ali, having gone 2 for 3 on Keeneland’s Polytrack over the years, a record that includes a fast score in the 2012 Fayette. And he also is in top form, having won the Pan American recently on the grass at Gulfstream.

But my suspicion is that he will drop well below his 3-1 morning-line odds – leaving rewarding prices on any horse other than him. Norumbega, drawn favorably in post 1, should stay close to his 4-1 price, which would make him worthy of a wager.

Ana Luisa taking a shot

Not to be overlooked Saturday is the Grade 3 Sixty Sails from Hawthorne, which precedes the Illinois Derby. A 1 1/8-mile dirt race for fillies and mares, the Sixty Sails has a filly that I expect will reverse her recent form.

That horse is Ana Luisa, who ran fifth, beaten 8 1/2 lengths, in an allowance when racing in the slop Jan. 29 at Gulfstream.

Previously a top performer on both dirt and turf in Brazil, she is encouragingly thrown into a dirt stakes off that lackluster performance, even though her earlier try in the United States – a close fourth in the South Beach Stakes on the Gulfstream grass – was a far better effort.

Whether the slop was to blame for her poor race or some other unknown reason, the key is that her trainer, Todd Pletcher, is showing a high degree of confidence in her by trying her in the Sixty Sails, particularly after more than 2 1/2 months away from the races. He could just have easily opted for more conservative placement in an allowance or ungraded stakes.

Instead, he’s taking a shot, and judging by her quick recent works, he and his staff must be pleased by what they have seen from her on the dirt in the mornings.

When a sharp trainer opts to be aggressive, it often is rewarding to pay attention. And in her case, hopefully that reward comes Saturday in the Sixty Sails.