Byron King: Longshots look live in Churchill's sophomore turf stakes

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Some racing writers don’t like the idea of stakes restricted to 3-year-olds this late in the year, believing it is time for 3-year-olds to prove their mettle against older horses. And when it comes to voting for Eclipse Awards and things of that nature, I concede it is a valid point.

But when it comes to deep, competitive fields that make for great wagering events, fall 3-year-old stakes pack a starting gate like dollar draft beers do a college bar. And that is why they keep getting written.

Two cases in point: Saturday night’s Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf and Grade 2 Mrs. Revere Stakes at Churchill Downs, which drew 13 and 14 entrants. With numbers that deep, the stage looks set for rewarding payoffs.

Given the depth in those two events, both 3-year-old grass races at 1 1/16 miles, I will be backing longshots. First up is 8-1 shot Dorsett in the Commonwealth Turf, a race for the boys, and he will be followed by a play on 12-1 Remember Then in the Mrs. Revere for the girls.

Starting with the Commonwealth Turf, which goes as the seventh race with a post time of 7:32 p.m. Eastern, here is the rationale for supporting Dorsett. First, he is reasonably classy, being a stakes winner and a horse who has been competitive in graded races. Second, he is capable of running Beyer Speed Figures in the mid to upper 80s, which would appear to give him a fighting chance. And, finally, his last race, a distant fourth in the Hawthorne Derby, wasn’t nearly as poor as it looks on paper.

Contested at 1 1/8 miles, the Grade 3 Hawthorne Derby was run on ground so soft that the winning time of the race was similar to a clocking for a 1 1/4-mile race: 2:01.49. And while this wasn’t the Grade 1 Secretariat, it wasn’t that slow of a group.

The course was difficult for some horses to handle. With the exception of the victorious Kid Dreams and maybe runner-up Charming Kitten and third-place finisher Five Iron, most of the horses wanted no part of racing on the boggy turf.

Although turf races usually are tightly packed at the finish, that wasn’t the case in Hawthorne Derby. Consider the losing margins of the trailing four horses – seventh-place Mongolian Saturday lost by 29 1/2 lengths, eighth-place Ultimo Trago by 32, ninth-place Moro Tap (also in the Commonwealth Turf) by 33 1/2, and last-place Infinite Magic by 45 3/4.

Relative to them, Dorsett’s 12-length defeat doesn’t look so bad.

Now I admit, simply because the Hawthorne Derby falls in the “excuse race” category doesn’t mean Dorsett is going to win the Commonwealth Turf. I wouldn’t consider him or any horse in the field to have better than a 20 percent chance of victory. But he does figure to be an overlay. Look for him to drift up from his morning line to 10-1 or 12-1, and at those odds, he is a horse worth backing.

Two races later at 8:36 is the Mrs. Revere, and as good as the Commonwealth is, this race is even better.

The race is so evenly matched that four horses are 9-2 or less on the morning line: Tapicat (7-2), Emotional Kitten (4-1), I’m Already Sexy (4-1), and Nellie Cashman (9-2).

So, it should come as no surprise that there are prices aplenty on any filly outside that quartet, and that explains why Remember Then is 12-1 on the morning line.

It is not as if she has poor form. She won her first three starts, ran fourth in the Grade 3 Pucker Up behind I’m Already Sexy, and then finished third in a seven-furlong allowance in the slop at Churchill.

But because she raced just once on turf – and went unplaced at that – many bettors will look toward more accomplished grass horses.

I’m willing to take a stab on her as a longshot play. I base this on the potential she has shown in such a short period of time and the move into a race that suits her far better than her most recent one did.

When she raced at Churchill on Oct. 30, she was running against dirt horses and going a distance shorter than her best. And to make matters worse, she found herself in the rear half of the pack early, taking slop in her face – something she had never experienced.

She came under a ride, presumably an indication that she was not happy with the going and the trip, but to her credit, she still managed to kick on for third.

Whether she is ready to defeat a group of this caliber is iffy. She already was easily handled by I’m Already Sexy. But her fat odds make her worth the gamble.