Byron King: Hoppertunity poised for improvement in Rebel
When Hoppertunity won a maiden race at Santa Anita on Jan. 30, shooting up the inside to victory and galloping out many lengths in front, he hit my shortlist of horses to follow who could vault into the Kentucky Derby picture with continued improvement. And although Hoppertunity followed that win with a fourth-place finish in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes, he is still one this handicapper is following closely.
On Saturday, when he races in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn, he could very well make amends for his recent defeat, and even if he dips to 6-1 or so from his 10-1 morning line, he merits a wager.
His Risen Star was deceptively good. Off a couple lengths behind the rest of the field, he was unexpectedly running in 10th early, 7 1/4 lengths behind a modest pace. And with congestion everywhere in front of him, jockey Martin Garcia chose to take him out to the center of the track, and he raced five wide on the second turn.
He looked like a horse destined to finish sixth or seventh in midstretch, but he never quit trying and rallied to be fourth, beaten seven lengths. Only the victorious Intense Holiday seemed to be finishing better than him.
Now, his Hall of Fame trainer, Bob Baffert, decides to ship him to Oaklawn, a track where his runners have excelled in Derby preps in recent years. And that Baffert chose Hoppertunity and not another from his deep bench of 3-year-olds suggests he must be pleased with how this horse has trained since the Risen Star.
This is no easy task, facing the likes of Tapiture, Strong Mandate, and Kobe’s Back, but Baffert is taking his shot. And this horseplayer will be taking his by backing Hoppertunity at the windows.
Honey Fox
Those looking for a live longshot in the Grade 2 Honey Fox on turf at Gulfstream on Saturday should give a long look to Triple Arch, a 12-1 outsider from the same connections as Lochte, who surprised many observers with strong Grade 1 performances.
Triple Arch, by Arch out of a Chester House mare, is a filly bred for the turf, and she has raced on it for much of her career. That is, until her last couple of races.
Most recently, she’s made two starts on dirt, first running second to eventual Barbara Fritchie third-place finisher Centrique in a seven-furlong allowance in the slop at Gulfstream and then returning to finish third in a swiftly run Sabin Stakes, which was won by the improving Devil’s Cave.
[Clocker Reports: Get Mike Welsch’s clocker reports from Gulfstream Park and Palm Meadows]
Coming off those two dirt efforts, which earned her main-track Beyer Speed Figures of 91 and 88, she could be ready for a lifetime-best mark with the switch to turf, where she ran her prior top, a 90, in winning an allowance on the Gulfstream Park turf in December.
This is an improving filly, and one whose sharp form is unlikely to receive the proper respect because it came on dirt. If she puts together one of her better races, she has a shot to upset in a good field that includes Parranda, Tapicat, and Centre Court.
Santa Margarita
The play is Let Faith Arise in the Grade 1 Santa Margarita at Santa Anita on Saturday. Coming off a pair of runner-up finishes in graded stakes in her first races going two turns, she seems to have upside as she catches up with experienced routers.
Beaten by Iotapa and Spellbound in her last two starts, she likely will be a decent price in the Santa Margarita, probably sticking to her 4-1 morning line or going a notch or two higher.
One suspects she still has her share of doubters, in part because she made her first six starts in Northern California.
[Santa Margarita: Get PPs, watch Saturday's card live]
A stalker with the ability to sit within a couple lengths of the leaders, she looks to get a good trip, and her figure pattern is favorable after “pairing up” in her last two races with mid-90 Beyers.
Also, one of her chief rivals, Iotapa, could regress Saturday after winning with a perfect front-running trip in a slow-paced Santa Maria on Feb. 15.