Byron King: Camille Claudel can upset Gulfstream Oaks

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – It is with great anticipation that I await the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby on Saturday, but seeing no faults in the morning-line favorites – Cairo Prince and Intense Holiday – I view those graded stakes as ones to watch, not wager on.

This is a game in which to offset the takeout, one has to pick spots and simply not bet every race. Besides, there are plenty of attractive betting opportunities on the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby undercards. Here is a look at three such races.

Gulfstream Oaks

Up first is the Gulfstream Oaks, a Grade 2 at 1 1/8 miles in which In Tune will be heavily favored, having won both of her starts, including an allowance in sparkling time against a field that included the third-place Rosalind, third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Having accomplished what she has in such a short time, I wouldn’t be surprised to see In Tune win – particularly against a field that is sadly without Davona Dale Stakes winner Onlyforyou, who broke down and was euthanized following a recent workout.

So, why not play In Tune? A short price. Undefeated horses are regularly overbet.

My alternative play, one based on value, is the filly who gave In Tune a good fight Feb. 27 at Gulfstream in a first-level allowance: runner-up Camille Claudel.

Watching the race replay multiple times, I was struck by how much bigger Camille Claudel was than In Tune. Camille Claudel is a towering, long-striding filly – the type of horse who should only get better with maturity.

Even so, it is not as if she has a lot of improving to do. Racing against In Tune on Feb. 27, she dueled with that rival on the outside while always traveling sweetly and only weakened in the stretch to lose by 2 3/4 lengths.

I expect odds in the range of 8-1 on Saturday on Camille Claudel, in part since she races for lower-profile Maryland connections. Forest Boyce, who piloted her to a maiden victory, is coming in to ride her for trainer Francis Abbott III.

A daughter of Broken Vow out of the Silver Charm mare Silver Ruckus, she is bred for the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Gulfstream Oaks. She is the value-priced contender in the race.

Pan American

In the race before the Florida Derby, Slumber looks ready for a winning performance in the Pan American at 1 1/2 miles on the Gulfstream turf.

A stalker making the third start of his current form cycle, he is well suited to the distance and anticipated fast pace and is well drawn on the inside, giving him a chance to save ground for at least a turn or two of the three-turn grass marathon.

Slumber saved ground in his last race, too, though his trip was troublesome. Boxed in, he got stuck behind a tired Alpha in the Mac Diarmida and was steadied on the final turn, and then he had to try to fight his way between rivals in an intimidating position in the stretch.

Third across the wire, he likely could have challenged the victorious Twilight Eclipse with better luck and almost certainly would have edged runner-up Amen Kitten for the place with a clean trip.

Not that he has to worry about those two Saturday. Neither Twilight Eclipse nor Amen Kitten is in this race, with the former running in Dubai in the Sheema Classic on Saturday.

Horseplayers should also take note that Pan American entrant Amira’s Prince, who would have been one of his principal rivals, is reportedly running in the Mervin Muniz Memorial at Fair Grounds on Saturday.

Slumber, at 5-1 on the morning line Saturday, seems more likely to go off at half that price.

Fair Grounds Oaks

The Fair Grounds Oaks has just a five-horse field but is a race filled with quality at the top. Three big-name fillies are in the lineup – Untapable, Fiftyshadesofgold, and Unbridled Forever.

I don’t hold Unbridled Forever, the 9-5 second favorite, in as high regard as other handicappers and will try to keep her out of the exacta. She beat very little in winning the Silverbulletday Stakes earlier in the meet.

Untapable is the most likely winner, and although Fiftyshadesofgold has a sprint pedigree, her long stride suggests she should be effective around two turns.

I’ll play exactas with Untapable on top of Fiftyshadesofgold and “saver” ones for one-third the price the other way around.