Byron King: Blinkers on doesn't mean head to the windows

Say won’t be the favorite when she runs in Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Keeneland, and, quite likely, not even the second or third choice. But she will take betting support from horseplayers to an extent, with some believing she is a move-up candidate with blinkers added.

It would seem logical that blinkers would aid her chances if she needs the improved focus, and perhaps make her a good bet.

The problem is, the statistics of her trainer, Aidan O’Brien, don’t bear this out. Nor is the blinkers-on angle a good overall one among many of the leading trainers in North America.

In looking through DRF’s Formulator database over the past five years, all five of O’Brien’s blinkers-on U.S. runners ran fifth or worse with the equipment change

And in examining the blinkers-on angle among the 10 leading trainers in North America by earnings – Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert, Chad Brown, Steve Asmussen, Bill Mott, Jerry Hollendorfer, Mike Maker, Mark Casse, John Sadler, Shug McGaughey – I also found negative results. In querying Formulator, I found that over a five-year sample these trainers saw their win percentage drop from an overall rate of 23 percent to 19 percent with horses adding blinkers. These statistics did not count first-time starters.

Worse, placing a wager on these blinkers-on horses would have proven a path to the poor house. Again excluding first-timers, blinkers-on runners returned an average of $1.35 for a $2 wager for these 10 leading trainers.

Bear in mind I’m not saying blinkers are a hindrance. I’m sure in some cases blinkers can help – and maybe that will happen with Say.

Some trainers might be more proficient with the switch to blinkers. Mike Maker, for example, won with 27 percent of his blinkers-on runners over the last five years while generating a slightly positive return on investment at $2.02.

But among the 10 sampled trainers, he was the exception. And I would suspect the lack of success adding blinkers would prove true if one were to expand the statistical analysis to include more trainers.
One can only theorize why blinkers-on horses are less effective for these trainers on a whole. If I had to guess, perhaps it is because the blinkers are being added in many cases to “problem” horses. Maybe some lack focus; others might struggle to keep a straight course; and still more might get them after being repeatedly outfinished.

Whatever the reason, the overall results simply aren’t good.

Blinkers off

Blinkers-off runners fared much better for these 10 leading trainers – with 26 percent winning and the $2 ROI coming back at $1.89. That’s not profitable, but it beats the return on a typical wager given takeout.
In examining these statistics, the blinkers-off angle seems trainer specific, at least as far as return on investment goes. Five trainers showed a flat-bet profit with such types, with the other five landing on the negative ROI side of the spectrum.

Handicappers are therefore advised to check Formulator when they see a horse having blinkers taken off. Examine the trainer’s history and try to keep the sample as large as possible so as not to have the numbers skewed by a few isolated events.

Once again, one can only speculate why blinkers off was a superior angle than blinkers with those 10 trainers. But if I had to guess, it would be because perhaps the trainer feels the horse is getting its act together and no longer in need of a crutch like blinkers.

I imagine that was the case for Will Take Charge this summer. Unplaced in all three legs of the Triple Crown, he had his blinkers removed and then proceeded to run second in the Jim Dandy before scoring back-to-back victories in the Travers and Pennsylvania Derby for trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

First-time Lasix

As part of this Formulator study, I examined these 10 leading trainers for their results adding Lasix, again not counting first-time starters. More telling than the statistics themselves – collectively 23 percent winners and a $1.73 ROI – to my surprise was how infrequently their horses add Lasix.

Mostly their horses debuted on it and stayed on it – presumably as a pre-emptive measure to keep them from bleeding or because using Lasix is considered advantageous.

Over the past five years, Todd Pletcher had 22 horses add Lasix that were not first-time starters; Maker, 19; Hollendorfer, 16; and Baffert, only 1.

So as betting angles go, the first-time Lasix angle is going the way of the CD player. You might see one from time to time, but when you do, you’re more surprised than anything else.