Bulky Blue Grass a tricky puzzle to solve
LEXINGTON, Ky. – It’s a bit hyperbolic – at least for now – but when a big field of 3-year-olds turns for home Saturday in the Blue Grass Stakes, they’ll go down the same path that legends such as Northern Dancer, Spectacular Bid, and Street Sense took to the Kentucky Derby.
Hardly anyone is bold enough to flat-out predict that a great horse – let alone the winner of the 142nd Derby – will emerge from the lineup for the $1 million Blue Grass at Keeneland, but this much is true: What the Blue Grass lineup lacks in accomplishment it makes up for in potential. And with 170 qualifying points (including 100 to the winner) toward the May 7 Derby at stake, at least the first two finishers will head to Churchill Downs with momentum aplenty.
That’s the crux of the 92nd running of the Grade 1 Blue Grass: We’ll wish we knew now what we’ll know by Saturday evening.
“It’s a good race, a very interesting race,” said Chad Brown, the trainer of My Man Sam, who was assigned the outside post in the full gate of 14. “We’re excited about our chances, although the 14 hole makes our assignment more difficult. This horse is a late bloomer and is really training well. We’d love to see him run a big race, the way we know he’s capable of running.”
My Man Sam is one of many viable considerations in a 1 1/8-mile race that figures to have Zulu as the favorite for trainer Todd Pletcher, already a three-time winner of the Blue Grass. Zulu has yet to win a stakes but is 2 for 3, his lone defeat coming to the highly regarded Mohaymen in his stakes debut, the Feb. 27 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Javier Castellano will be aboard from post 4.
As a matter of fact, none of the 16 entered (only 14 can start) has won a stakes other than Brody’s Cause, who accounted for the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity here last fall for Dale Romans. Brody’s Cause was seventh in his lone start this year, the Tampa Bay Derby.
“It’s time to step up, pure and simple,” said Romans.
Pletcher also has two other Blue Grass starters in Donegal Moon and Cards of Stone, while Romans has a second entry in Cherry Wine.
The Blue Grass, the annual spring showcase at Keeneland, is the last of five straight graded stakes on a blockbuster 11-race card that starts at 12:35 p.m. Eastern. It’s the final leg of a “Big Apple-Blue Grass” pick four wager that starts at 4:52 with the Bay Shore from Aqueduct and proceeds through the Madison at Keeneland, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, and the Blue Grass.
Post time is 6 p.m. for the Blue Grass, which is part of the live NBC Sport Network telecast that includes the Wood and Santa Anita Derby.
The five Keeneland stakes go as races 6-10: the Ashland, Commonwealth, Shakertown, Madison, and Blue Grass. They comprise a pick five wager, while the last four are grouped in a pick four. Both wagers carry guaranteed pools of $300,000.
The weather forecast for Saturday is the only downer: The high temperature will only reach the mid-40s.
Blue Grass, Race 10
KEY CONTENDERS
Zulu, by Bernardini
Last 3 Beyers: 92-86-82
◗ Blinkers go on a handy colt who really came to hand over the winter in three races at Gulfstream for Pletcher, whose Blue Grass wins came with Bandini (2005), Monba (2008), and Carpe Diem (2015).
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 4 Zulu. Trainer Todd Pletcher is 21-2-1-3 with a $0.93 ROI over the past five years when adding blinkers in graded stakes. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
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Brody’s Cause, by Giant’s Causeway
Last 3 Beyers: 80-84-88
◗ This colt flaunted a terrific closing kick in three straight races to end his 2-year-old season but came up empty in his lone start this year, leaving many to wonder what to expect Saturday.
My Man Sam, by Trappe Shot
Last 3 Beyers: 95-91-52
◗ Unlike most of the top Brown horses, he stayed in New York for the winter and impressed while competing exclusively over the inner track at Aqueduct in preparing for his stakes debut.
Donegal Moon, by Malibu Moon
Last 3 Beyers: 99-73-0
◗ He’ll most likely be higher than his 5-1 morning line, but the inside post and the Pletcher factor are in his favor as he tries to prove that the gaudy Beyer Speed Figure in a March romp at Parx was no fluke.
Star Hill, by Elusive Quality
Last 3 Beyers: 88-88-67
◗ Trainer Rusty Arnold is bullish on this colt, whose solid efforts in a Gulfstream maiden victory and the Tampa Bay Derby make him a live longshot with the underrated Emisael Jaramillo getting the mount back.
Cherry Wine, by Paddy O’Prado
Last 3 Beyers: 87-79-75
◗ Gray colt was a creditable fourth in the March 19 Rebel Stakes and was cross-entered in the Wood, but Romans picked this race when getting post 3 and Corey Lanerie.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 5 Crescent Drive. Trainer Tom Amoss is 88-28-21-14 with a $3.36 ROI over the past five years when going turf to dirt in routes. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan