BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, September 3, 2016 by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
First things first: This is the final week for the BreezeFigs 2015 cards—they end on Monday, Labor Day, as has been our custom the past few years. There are so few starters with less than four starts from last year’s sales that it really doesn’t help handicappers all that much. That said, the less we say about our Pix last week, the better. Just not our day. On the other hand, it was a very good week overall for both 2-year-olds and 3-year-olds. There were 15 BreezeFigs 2-year-old maidens that won: Arlington, Canterbury, Del Mar (three, including two BreezeFigs exactas), Ellis, Gulfstream (three, including a BreezeFigs exacta), Monmouth (a BreezeFigs exacta), Saratoga (three, plus a stake), and Timonium (two). The 3-year-olds which broke their maidens came at Charles Town, Del Mar, Gulfstream and Saratoga (where another won a stake). Saturday's final 3-year-old card has an interesting first-timer, and the 2-year-old card, which is loaded with more than 75 horses, has a sneaky play, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pix:
2-Year-Olds:
Del Mar, 5thth Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)
Three first-timers are in here among the five BreezeFigs fillies, one of which, Honor Maker, is on the AE list. If she gets in, consider her OBSAPR even-Par performance decent enough because of her 24.10 foot stride length, (SL) a half-foot longer than average that day for fillies at one eighth. Of the other two we like Jilly, who posted a four-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSMAR with a 24.49 foot SL, more than half a foot longer than average for fillies that day at one eighth. However, she was scratched (SCR) before the sale began, and to add more intrigue, she is owned by Bob Baffert’s wife—and he has another contender in here which is the favorite, but not a BreezeFigs horse. Mmmmm. Mistressofthenight went a quarter-mile at OBSAPR with a 24.36 foot SL, which was more than half-foot longer than average for fillies that day, but she only punched a Group 4, two-under-Par ticket, which means she wasn’t all that fast. Of the previous starters, Aura Rose may have needed her start, and she should improve to flatter her four-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSAPR where her 24.67 foot SL was almost a foot longer than average for fillies that day at a quarter mile. La Vitesse, who has had two modest starts, looks like she needs to vastly improve to live up to her four-over-Par Group 1 profile at EASMAY where her 25.12 foot SL was almost a foot-and-a-half longer than average for fillies that day at one furlong. We’d go with Jilly and Aura Rose here as gimmick plays (and consider Honor Maker is she gets in), and might toss a buck or two on Jilly to hedge against the gods of matrimony.
3-Year-Olds:
Parx, Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Pennsylvania-Bred) (Dirt)
She’s on the outside here but Pontre Vedre Sky looks like she has a chance to score a mild upset over this bunch based on her one-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSMAR last year where her 24.77 foot SL was almost three-quarters of a foot longer than average for fillies that day at one eighth. Looks like a logical key in our last Pick of the year for the 3-year-old crowd. Good luck!