BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday, September 23, 2017 by Bob Fierro & Jay Kilgore
“Horses don’t lie,” was the comment made by a connection of our Pick last week who decided after training well up to the race to decide she simply didn’t want to race. Too bad we can’t interview them before the race. In any case, it wasn’t a total loss as 11 2-year-old BreezeFigs maidens came home on top last week, at: Belmont, Churchill (two), Delaware (two), Gulfstream (five, including two BreezeFigs exactas), and Los Alamitos (BreezeFigs exacta). Saturday's card is loaded with first-timers and we pondered a lot of them but decided to come up with something completely different. We are selecting one horse from each of the three maiden races at Belmont for you to key—and leave you to figure out the rest of the plays based on the data on the card. Lazy? Nah, just shaking things up a bit, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pix:
At Belmont Park:
1st Race, Maiden Claiming (50k), 6 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)
It’s a virtual dead-heat here but we tip the scales to Dream Fever over Glow Goddess based on her 23.80 stride length (SL) which was three-fifths of a foot longer than average that day for fillies at an eighth at EASMAY.
7th Race, Maiden Special Weight, Mile (Turf)
Six BreezeFigs maidens in here, two first-timers, and even though he’s on the rail and probably going to go off as favorite, Up the Ante has the kind of profile we lover—eight-over-Par Group 1 at OBMAR with a foot-longer-than-average SL of 24.60.
10th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Turf)
Another six BreezeFigs maidens in here, two first-timers, and in this one, which is likely to be a wild scramble, Diamond Setter is the sneaky bet. That’s because he was scratched (SCR) from EASMAY after he racked up a three-over-Par Group 1 number with a 25.25 foot SL, a foot-and-a-half longer than average for colts that day at a furlong. So the PP’s don’t reflect that he was in that sale, but he’s on our card. He is in clever hands and likely to have the gas to do it.