BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, October 3rd by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
We take heart when we see BreezeFigs exactas, trifectas or superfectas, and last week was pretty good with four such gimmicks—a trifecta at Belmont and exactas at Golden Gate, Gulfstream and Santa Anita. However, when our Pick turns out to be an exacta-in-reverse, we scramble to hide under a rock. That’s what happened last week when our Pix finished next to last and last—well, at least our top Pick finished ahead of the other one. In any case, there were 13 other BreezeFigs maidens who won last week in addition to the four gimmick plays above: at Arlington, Belmont (three more), Delaware, Finger Lakes, Gulfstream (two more), Indiana, Laurel, Parx and another one at Santa Anita. This week’s card may be compromised by weather on the East Coast, but we found something interesting on the Left Coast to ponder, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick: Santa Anita, 3rd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 ½ Furlongs (Downhill Turf)
This one is a bit of a mess because one of the BreezeFigs fillies and a likely choice, Dreamarcher, is on the AE list. She did OK in her debut showing that her seven-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSAPR which featured a 24.20 foot stride length (SL) was valid. There are three first-timers, however, two of which look to have a possible claim. Amber Louise is on the outside and she chalked up a one-over-Par Group 2 profile at OBSAPR with a 24.25 foot SL, more than a foot and a quarter longer than fillies that day at one furlong. Spread the Key was just one-under-Par Group 3 at BARMAR but her SL of 23.17 feet was more than a foot and a quarter below average for that day—but she may have hinted that she would prefer turf anyway. Zira Gold came out of OBSMAR with a Group 4, six-under-Par profile that featured a half-foot-below-average SL of 23.43 feet. Coronado Cool came out of BARMAR with a two-under-Par Group 3 effort with a 24.38 foot SL, a quarter foot longer than average. Amare threw in a poor six-under-Par Group 4 effort at OBSAPR with a 22.07 foot SL, more than a foot shorter than average that day. None of these look to be world beaters but if Dreamarcher doesn’t draw in (a key if she does) we would look to Amber Louise as a weak key with Spread the Joy and Coronado Cool as potential back-up gimmick plays. Good luck!