BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, October 10th by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
We told you last week’s Pix was likely to be a mess, and it turned out to be that. Not much talent in a field that didn’t turn us on all that much, but it was the only alternative we had in keeping with our mission—to find first-time starters that looked like good choices based on the BreezeFigs profiles. Sometimes it works (like it did with Airoforce, whom we tabbed in his debut and who came back to win a Grade 3 on the weeds at Keeneland last week), and sometimes it doesn’t. In any case, there were a dozen BreezeFigs maidens who won last week, four of which were making their debuts, all of them playable in the conditions they were in. Overall, the dozen came at Belmont (three), Gulfstream West, Hawthorne (first-timer), Indiana, Keeneland (two, one a first-timer)), Parx, Santa Anita (two, one a first-timer) and Woodbine (debut winner). Today’s card has a number of races with playable first-timers, but we like to torture ourselves sometimes with spotting races with just one BreezeFigs horse in it, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link:
www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick: Laurel Park, 7th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Turf)
Sensible Match is a study in contradictions, and on the rail in a turf sprint just adds to complications. But we kind of like her. She turned in a desultory three-under-Par Group 3 profile at FTFMAR but not because of her stride length—which was 24.54 feet, almost a foot longer than average for fillies that day at a furlong. She was just slow, and not all that efficient, and she was led out of the ring as a 170k RNA (not sold). Wheeled back at EASMAY she turned in a four-over-Par Group 1 profile with a 24.24 foot stride length, three-quarters of a foot longer than average for fillies that day at a furlong—and did it much more efficiently—but only brought 100k, and was sold. Both those breezes were on pure dirt, this race is on the turf, but this filly moves like she needs turf, and could be a nice play at the odds likely to be pinned to her tail. Good luck!