BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday, November 30, 2019 by Bob Fierro & Jay Kilgore
Last week’s Pick bored us to death from the start, but at least there were four BreezeFigs maiden winners elsewhere on that day’s card, part of a baker’s dozen that came during the week at 11 tracks, at: Aqueduct, Charles Town, Churchill (two, including a BreezeFigs exacta), Del Mar, Fair Grounds, Finger Lakes, Gulfstream West, Hawthorne, Laurel, Mountaineer and Remington (two). How’s that for almost running the alphabet? Today’s card is chock full of races but we found two intriguing ones early in the day to noodle over, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick:
Aqueduct, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Turf)
If this one stays on the turf the 5-to-2 morning line on Fairy Diva (GB) may just plunge because she’s a first timer on the turf trained by Jonathan Thomas—that always lights up the board. She was quick at OBSAPR with an 11-over-Par Group 1 profile but a below-average stride length (SL) of 23.66 feet, about three-quarters of a foot shorter than average for fillies that day. That usually doesn’t hurt on the turf and the three others in here—Toastnjam, Honor Belle and Superbloodwolfmoon--while having posted longer SLs and decent BreezeFigs profiles have yet to accomplish anything in their short careers on any surface. Fairy Diva is your key, period.
Churchill Downs, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight, One Mile (Dirt)
Fire Coral was scratched (SCR) from OBSMAR after posting a one-over-Par Group 2 ticket highlighted by a just above average 24.39 foot SL at a furlong. She’s a nice mover but might need to settle, so a mile out of the chute should be right up her alley. She does come from a smart barn and cost over $400 k as a yearling so her 6-to-1 morning line looks tempting. Street of Dreams did OK in her first start to earn 3-to-1 odds here and that’s backed up by a seven-over-Par Group 1 profile at EASMAY where her 23.91 foot SL was almost a half-foot longer than average for fillies that day at a furlong. Bonbons Fleur also breezed the same day at that sale but at a quarter mile where her 23.91 foot SL was almost a half-foot shorter than average for that distance, which helped her earn a six-under-Par Group 4 profile. We like Fire Coral here as a key and maybe Street of Dreams as a gimmick play. Good luck!