BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, November 14th by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
Sometimes you try to steal a shot and somehow everyone else catches on before you can cash in, but we are not complaining that Piracy, our Pick last week, was pounded down to favoritism and scampered off with a fairly impressive win at $5.2 at Churchill Downs. She was one of 13 BreezeFigs runners who broke their maidens last week from coast to coast and north to south: There were two others at Churchill, three at Aqueduct, two at Gulfstream West, and solos at Del Mar, Finger Lakes, Golden Gate, Laurel and Zia. Today’s card is rich with opportunities but even though it’s a marginal event, we thought we’d return to the scene of last week’s heft for today’s Pick, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick: Churchill Downs, 5th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Three BreezeFigs fillies are in this one, all first-time starters, one of which, Unbridled Fancy, is on the AE list—and she would be our choice. If she gets in, her even-Par Group 2 profile at OBSAPR with a basically average stride length (SL) for that day of 23.19 feet good enough for this bunch, which is not exactly Graded stakes material. The other two, Katy’s Duchess and Mystical Steal, line up next to each other in the gate but not on paper. Though she had a fairly decent one-over-Par Group 2 profile at OBSAPR on a different day, Katy’s Duchess’ 22.45 foot SL was over a foot shorter than average for fillies that day at a furlong—she will probably scamper out there and try to hold on. Mystical Steal turned in a very modest three-under-Par Group 3 profile at OBSMAR with a 22.13 foot SL, more than a foot and a half shorter than average for fillies that day at a furlong. If our top choice doesn’t draw in, Katy’s Duchess is a modest gimmick play. Good luck!