BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, November 12th, 2016 by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
Serious week, folks. Not only did we score out with our Pick last week, but BreezeFigs maidens continued their march through various condition books with 23 victories at eight tracks, many of them resulting in serious payoffs. Things got off to a good start with our Pick at Penn National when our key, True to the Moon, finished second to Spinelli, with Onaj coming in third and the one we suspected would be over bet, Toss the Tub, off the board. There were various permutations of the exacta and trifecta payoffs, but we were happy with the overall result. Here is a round-up of the other 22 winners around the country during the week: Aqueduct (three, including one BreezeFigs exacta); Churchill (four, including two exactas and one superfecta); Gulfstream West (four, including one exacta), Hawthorne (two, both on the same day); Mountaineer; Parx (six, including one superfecta for beaucoup bucks all around); another one at Penn National; and Remington. Today’s card is chock full of sneaky plays, one of which is below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick:
Churchill Downs, 8th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
There are seven BreezeFigs maidens in here, one of which, former Pick Dupree, is the morning line favorite but on the AE list; if he gets in, he is your key. Otherwise, there are four first-timers, one of which, Petrov,is the key. He threw in an impressive two-over-Par Group 1 performance at OBSJUN with a 24.59 foot stride length (SL), more than three-quarters of a foot longer than average for colts that day at one eighth. Tsunami Cat also breezed an eighth on the same day and posted a one-under-Par Group 2 profile with a 23.31 foot SL, almost a half-foot below average. Hay Net posted a three-under-Par Group 3 ticket at EASMAY with a 24.15 foot SL, but that was about average that day and he was left unsold (RNA) at 37k. Up Your Cash posted a one-under-Par Group 3 profile at the higher level OBSMAR sale with a 24.85 foot SL—almost a half-foot longer than average that day for colts at an eighth, but he, too, was RNA’s, for 30k. Beachtown Benny actually has the best overall profile in this race, having posted a three-over-Par Group 1 ticket at EASMAY with a 24.90 foot SL—three-quarters of a foot longer than average for colts that day at one furlong. But he threw in a stinker in his first start so watch the board. Pleasant Street had a four-under-Par Group 4 profile at OBSAPR with a 23.34 foot SL, which was more than a half-foot shorter than average that day. He was left unsold at 45k and wheeled back at OBSJUN where he improved to a two-over-Par Group 2 ticket with a 23.91 foot SL, just about average that day. His first start was not impressive. We think that Petrov could be more than ordinary, and give Beachtown Benny a second chance here with Up Your Cash not far behind. Good luck!