BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, Nov. 5th, 2016 by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
Things should be so easy all the time: Our Pick last week was never in danger as Crown and Silver rolled to a $14.80 payoff at Delta Downs as the only BreezeFigs horse in the race. As it turned out it was a pretty spectacular week for BreezeFigs maidens all over the country, which could be best explained by the fact that there were plenty of opportunities. Still, 24 of them won, and there were a plethora of gimmicks. Here’s the rundown: Belmont Park (two), Churchill, Delta Downs, Finger Lakes (two), Gulfstream West (six, including three on the 28th, one of which was a $98 payoff, and another a BreezeFigs superfecta, plus another superfecta later in the week); Keeneland, Laurel (three, including a trifecta), Parx (an exacta), Penn National, Remington (two), and Santa Anita (four, including two exactas). Saturday's card is slightly overwhelming but we’ve found a potential goody to spotlight, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick:
Penn National, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)
Two first timers are among the four BreezeFigs colts entered here and we think both of them have a shot. Onaj chalked up a two-over-Par Group 1 ticket at EASMAY where his 24.42 foot stride length (SL) was a quarter-foot longer than average for colts that day at a furlong. But he was scratched (SCR) from the sale after that so he might have come up with an issue. Same sale, different day, True to the Moon posted a three-over-Par Group 2 profile with a 25.23 foot SL, almost a foot-and-a-half longer than average for colts at a furlong. On the same day, Toss the Tub posted an even-Par Group 2 at the same distance but with a 23.13 foot SL, almost three-quarters of a foot shorter than average, and he was not sold (RNA) for 30k. He has had three chances at three different tracks and has shown enough to be morning line favorite—but that SL vs. the one posted by True to the Moon looks weak here. Spinelli posted an eight-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSAPR with a 25.57 foot SL, more than a foot-and-a-half longer than average that day. His only start was a bummer, but he is definitely playable. Each of these has a chance, but if we were looking for value, True to the Moon would be the key. Good luck!