BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, June 11th, 2016 by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
Our closing line last week said that Horse Greedy “might be worth tossing into a gimmick with Supervisor who, if he is one piece, could turn out to be a nice horse.” Well, Horse Greedy won, Supervisor was last all the way, indicating that he is not all there so we hope a few of you were saved. Eight other BreezeFigs 3-year-old maidens won last week, three at Churchill and one each at Charles Town, Finger Lakes, Gulfstream, Indiana and Parx. Three BreezeFigs 2-year-olds broke their maidens at Belmont, Delaware and Gulfstream, and another, Bode’s Dream, took the Astoria at Belmont. Today’s card has no first-timers among the 3 year-olds but all the babies are making their first starts and all the races are contentious, especially the one we’ve chosen, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick:
Churchill Downs, 5th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs (Dirt)
Three BreezeFigs maidens are in this one, and they are in posts 1, 2, and 3—and that’s the way they might be bet, but at substantially different odds. Our Stormin Norman is on the rail and is likely to be among the two favorites based on his connections and the morning line. However, he threw in an even-Par Group 2 performance at FTFMAR with a 23.33 foot stride length (SL), which was actually two-thirds of a foot below average that day for colts at one eighth. Makes him likely to scamper and vulnerable in our book, though he may benefit from the rail and distance. Next to him is Sir Douglas, who threw in a five-over-Par Group 2 performance at OBSMAR at a quarter mile where his 26.50 foot SL (yes, that’s right) was almost two feet longer than average for colts that day at that distance. Royal Copy came out at OBSAPR with a three-under-Par Group 3 profile with a 24.42 foot SL, almost a half-foot longer than colts that day at one eighth. That’s unusual for a colt with a low BreezeFig, so he might be one to watch in the future, or toss into the Super here. We’re inclined to think that Sir Douglas might benefit from a very fast pace in which Our Stormin Norman has to press from the rail. This looks like a race filled with promising homebred and yearling purchases so you might want to key both of them in gimmicks and take a chance on Sir Douglas alone. Good luck!