BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, July 9th, 2016 by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
It doesn’t happen often but we will take a bow for last week’s double Pix success simply from a stride length (SL) and strategy point. At Belmont Libby’s Tail settled in from her middle post while Golden Mischief had to scoot out fast from the rail and the latter tired and finished fourth off a 23.58 foot SL while Libby’s Tail used her 25.08 foot SL to get up at $8.50. At Parx, Rum Punch just crushed her rivals with her 25.78 foot SL to pay $5.00. These two were part of a dozen 2-year-old BreezeFigs maidens to win last week, five of them kicking off BreezeFigs exactas. Considering there were only 25 races during the week in which one BreezeFigs 2-year-old started, that’s an almost 50% strike rate. The wins came at Belmont (two, including an exacta), Delaware (two), Gulfstream (three, including an exacta), Mountaineer (an exacta), Pleasanton, Parx (two, including an exacta), and Santa Anita (an exacta). The 3-year-olds took seven maiden races: Belmont, Ellis, Gulfstream (three), Monmouth, and Santa Anita. Saturday's card has some really contentious races on both cards, so we’ll give you one from each, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pix:
2-Year-Olds:
Ellis Park, 5th Race, Maiden Special Weight, One Mile (Turf)
We could and will repeat last week’s opening words from the Belmont Park Pick: “Both BreezeFigs fillies have a shot in here.” Saturday we look for the first-time starter Ever Special whose Group 2 one-over-Par profile at OBSAPR featured a 24.85 foot stride length (SL), which was 1.30 feet longer than average for fillies that day at a furlong. Dynamic Union, who ran a good race in her debut and may be favored, breezed the same day at OBSAPR and posted a one-under-Par Group 3 profile--but her 22.86 foot SL was almost three-quarters of a foot shorter than average for fillies at one furlong. This race has two conditions that may favor Ever Special: One mile on the turf, a combination that is often an advantage for long striders. We’d look to key both.
3-Year-Olds:
Gulfstream Park, 12th Race, Maiden Claiming ($12,500), 5 Furlongs (Turf)
Bottom maiden claimers in this scramble include one BreezeFigs horse making her debut: Little Quiet posted a two-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSAPR last year with a 23.37 foot SL, which was almost a half-foot longer than average for fillies that day at a furlong. However, she was sold for only $8,000, which means there were probably problems. Still, she is not facing much here and she may be able to settle and close well enough to get into the gimmicks. Good luck!