BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, July 30th, 2016 by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
Both our Pix took a dive last week—Patron (Ger) went out and fried himself at Del Mar, and despite two BreezeFigs horses completing the trifecta, the ones we liked at Saratoga had no interest in doing their jobs. So it wasn’t a total loss, the result of the Grade 3 Sanford at Saratoga on the same day produced a BreezeFigs exacta between Bitumin and Random Walk paltry though it was at $7.30. Still it was a very successful week all around, one in which nine BreezeFigs 3-year-olds and eight BreezeFigs 2-year-olds broke their maidens. Lumping them together is interesting to see how they fared across the country: Arlington (a BreezeFigs exacta), Del Mar (two), Evangeline, Gulfstream (three), Laurel, Parx (two, including an exacta), Presque Isle, Saratoga (four) and Thistledown (two). Saturday's cards are solid—with the 2-year-olds offering many challenging opportunities, a couple of which are selected below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pix:
3-Year-Olds:
Gulfstream, 9th Race, Maiden Special Weight, One Mile (Turf)
This race is suspicious. Two Conquest Stable horses are entered but not coupled, and the first-timer, Conquest Neighpalm, is the only BreezeFigs horse in the race. He is 5-to-1 and his “stablemate” is 7-to-2. What we know is that Conquest Neighpalm showed decent form at BARMAR last year with a three-over-Par Group 2 profile that featured a 24.47 foot stride length (SL), which was about average for colts that day at a furlong. This is a clever outfit, and if he stays in the race, he should be played..
2-Year-Olds:
Saratoga, 3rd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Another weird race in which the BreezeFigs horses may not be to the liking of the handicappers, but there are three here that should be strongly considered. Theory came out of OBSAPR with a six-over-Par Group 1 profile that featured a 24.44 foot SL, more than half-a-foot longer than average that day for colts at one eighth—but he’s on the AE list. Port More comes out of the same sale and breezed on a different day, chalking up an even-Par Group 1 profile with a 24.16 foot SL, slightly above average for colts that day at the same distance—but we liked the way he moved very much. Reckling was also in the same sale, but he was left unsold (RNA) at 75k after a weak five-under-Par Group 4 profile that featured a 22.93 foot SL, almost a foot below average for a furlong on another day. Now we come to Stun, who had two chances at being sold this year but was scratched (SCR) from each sale after breezing. At OBSMAR he racked up a very impressive six-over-Par Group 1 profile with a 25.21 foot SL, more than three-quarters of a foot above average for colts at an eighth. At OBSJUN he came back with a five-over-Par Group 1 profile at a quarter mile with a 24.43 foot SL, more than half-a-foot longer than average. He is the mystery horse here, and the board must be watched if he is to be taken seriously. Otherwise we lean toward Port More and, if he gets in,Theory at your keys. Good luck!