BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, July 29, 2017, by Bob Fierro & Jay Kilgore
We now know why they changed the name of our 3-year-old Pick last week to Unpredictable: Off slow, raced wide, not interested. As for the 2-year-old Pick, one of our keys, Gracida, was an impressive winner at $5,60, while the other folded early. Ironically, we were torn last week between focusing on the race we selected at Del Mar and the other one on the card, the third race. Should have flipped a coin and hoped for the third because it resulted in a BreezeFigs superfecta paying more than a grand to say nothing of the exacta and trifecta as well. Meanwhile, two other 2-year-old BreezeFigs maidens won during the week at Del Mar, and there were solos at Ellis, Gulfstream (BreezeFigs exacta), Laurel, Prairie Meadows, Presque Isle, and Saratoga (BreezeFigs exacta)—that’s ten winners. There were five 3-year-old BreezeFigs maidens who got off the schneid last week at Charles Town, Delaware, Gulfstream, Parx and Saratoga. Saturday's card is all over the place, but we found two with congruent ironies, if you please, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here are Saturday’s Pix:
3-year-olds:
Parx Racing, 3rd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs (Turf)
The Forty Factor and Pleasant Sojourn are not only the only BreezeFigs colts in here but also they breezed the same day at a furlong at EASMAY last year. First-timer The Forty Factor posted a three-over-Par Group 2 number with a 25.45 foot stride length (SL), more than a foot longer than the average for that day at that distance. Meanwhile, Pleasant Sojourn posted a two-under-Par Group 3 profile with a 23.16 foot SL, more than a foot shorter than average—and basically ran to his profile in his only start to date. One would think The Forty Factor could be a good thing here and is worth a key, while Pleasant Sojourn might do as a gimmick toss-in.
2-year-olds:
Saratoga, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Hoard and Thunder Mesa are not only the only BreezeFigs colts in here but they also breezed the same day at OBSAPR this year—where have you read a similar sentence on this page? They both posted a one-over-Par Group 2 profile—but that’s where the comparison deviates. Hoard did it at a quarter mile with a 24.58 foot SL, more than three-quarters of a foot longer than average for colts that day at that distance. Thunder Mesa showed a 23.54 foot SL at a furlong, more than a third-of-a-foot shorter than average for colts that day at that distance. He didn’t show all that much in his debut but his slow start might have hindered him. Still Hoard looks like a reasonable gimmick play here even at 20-to-1 in the morning line. Good luck!