BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, July 23rd, 2016 by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
Off slowly, Noted and Quoted, our top Pick last week, was given too much to do but she did manage to get up to complete a $3,500 superfecta which was kicked off by our two “gimmick” plays in the race, Morganite ($19 to win) and Champagne Room (who completed a $32 exacta and $29 quinella). Not a bad “saver.” Our 3-year-old Pick is still running, we think. There were 21 BreezeFigs maidens who won last week, including a first-timer in a stake at Belmont Park among 14 2-year-old winners. Other babies won at Albuquerque, Delaware, (BreezeFigs exacta), Del Mar (two, including an exacta), Ellis, Evangeline, Gulfstream (exacta), Indiana, Laurel, Lone Star (two, including an exacta), and Woodbine. Among the 3-year-olds, four won at Del Mar, and one each at Arlington, Belmont and Sacramento (the latter two were first-timers, still a good bet among 3-year-olds). Saturday's card is overwhelming—Saratoga has opened and Del Mar is on a roll. Let’s see what we have for you, see below. Good luck! (BTW, our best wishes to Steve Crist who retired this week as major domo of the DRF he helped create and made indispensable. He has had a major impact on our business since the early 1980s and we salute him).
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pix:
3-Year-Olds:
Del Mar, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Patron (Ger) has a completely unrecognizable pedigree for this country, especially on the dirt, but he posted a three-over-Par, Group 2 profile last year at OBSAPR where his 26.01 foot stride length (SL) was more than two-and-a-half feet longer than average for colts that day at a furlong. He has the connections who might know what they’re doing—and the morning line seems to think so as well..
2-Year-Olds:
Saratoga, 6th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)
This is the kind of race that drives us crazy. Six BreezeFigs entries, four first-timers, and four of the six with a chance to run away Johnny Obvious had an astounding 11-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSAPR where his 24.69 foot SL was three-quarters of a foot longer than average for colts that day at a furlong—and he did not sell (RNA) at 32k. But you cannot ignore his explosive pedigree. Any Questions comes out of the same sale with a two-over-Par Group 2 profile which featured a 24.59 foot SL, about three-quarters of a foot longer than average on the day he breezed. Royal Copy came out of the same sale on the same day as Johnny Obvious but he had a three-under-Par Group 3 profile although his 24.42 foot SL was about a half-foot longer than average that day—he was just a little less efficient and it showed somewhat in his debut. Looking at Blessing came out of FTFMAR with a one-under-Par Group 3 profile and s 24.57 foot SL, which was more than half a foot longer than average that day. But, he was scratched (SCR) from the sale after the breeze—maybe bucked his shins. He is dangerous here. Magnolia Mountain comes out of OBSMAR with a two-under-Par Group 3 profile and a 24.29 foot SL, a bit above average that day. Finally, Pretty Boy Flash is the huge question mark here: He posted a 10-over-Par Group 1 number at OBSMAR where his 24.94 foot SL was about three-quarters of a foot longer than average. He was bumped around in his debut and is at a surprising 12-to-1 in the morning line despite his connections. This race should come down to him as your key with Johnny Obvious, Looking at Blessing and Any Questions in the gimmick mix, Good luck!