BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, July 18th by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
Lesson from last week: Two-year-olds will be two-year-olds. Our strong Pick, Parker Lily, hit the gate at the start and lost most of her momentum but still managed to finish second to a 28-to-1 shot as the favorite, which if you keyed her returned at least $154 for an exacta. So much for leftovers. Sticking with the babies, Cajun Schill, our Pick a couple of weeks ago, came back quickly to score by five at Gulfstream, and there was a $16 BreezeFigs exacta at Monmouth last Saturday as well. There were three other BreezeFigs babies who left the maiden ranks, at Gulfstream, Los Alamitos and Sacramento. Among the 3-year-olds, three of them won at Woodbine and there were six others who got off the schneid, at Belmont, Gulfstream, Indiana, Laurel, Parx and Presque Isle. Remember, the 3-year-old cards will continue to be published through Labor Day, so pay attention. Unfortunately, there are no first-time starters on today’s 3-year-old card, so we will focus on a very contentious baby race at Del Mar, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreeeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pix:
2-year-olds
Del Mar, 3rd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs (Dirt)
There are five first-timers here with solid BreezeFigs profiles that we have sifted through and come up with a moderate preference. That would be Kelly With a Twist whose even-Par Group 1 profile at OBSAPR featured a 24.79 foot stride length (a foot longer than average for colts at a quarter mile that day) and very nice motion. Rockin Bayou, another graduate of that sale, was a one-over-Par Group 2 number with a 24.13 foot SL at a furlong, three-quarters of a foot longer than average for colts that day. Sticking with Ocala sales for a minute, Ring Collector tossed in an even-par Group 2 rating at OBSMAR with a 23.95 foot SL, average for that day at a quarter. At BARMAR, which was at Fairplex, Toews On Ice powered to a three-over-Par Group 2 profile with a 25.10 foot SL, just over half-a-foot longer than average for colts at an eighth. However, he was not sold (RNA) with a final bid of 340k, and even though he is on the rail, his connections have probably made him the 2-to-1 favorite. Bistraya completes the line-up, first appearance by a graduate of the new BARMAY venue which was at Del Mar, where he chalked up a decent one-under-Par Group 3 profile with a just about average 23.29 foot SL at a quarter mile. He looks a bit overmatched here. Even though we are respectful of the morning line, we think Kelly With a Twist might be the best key overall. Good luck!