BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, January 19, 2019 by Bob Fierro & Jay Kilgore
Let us not discuss our Pix last week other than to say we apologize. We concentrate on first time starters and sometimes we are faced with a situation in which some races are full of potential scratches, either because some are on the AE list or there might be weather factors. The two we chose had some weather issues, but in the end were bad choices. Still, on that same card there were three eminently playable first timers which won at decent odds, so it pays to get that card and do your own homework as well. There were 14 BreezeFigs maidens who won last week which is a very good percentage considering there weren’t that many races. The winners came at Aqueduct (two), Golden Gate, Gulfstream (six, including a BreezeFigs exacta), Parx, Santa Anita and Tampa Bay. There are several interesting races Saturday with first-timers, but one offers a neat opportunity, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick:
Aqueduct, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Three BreezeFigs maidens in here, one of which, Shanghai Bonnie, is likely to go off odds-on based on her first two starts which have improved upon her even-Par Group 2 status at BARMAR where her 23.07 foot stride length (SL) was three-quarters of a foot shorter than average for fillies that day at a furlong. She was not sold (RNA) at 75k but clearly she has come along nicely. However, we think she might be vulnerable because the filly on the outside, first-time starter Win the Shake, posted a very nice three-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSAPR where her 23.98 foot SL was just over average that day. Gracetown is also in here but she has mirrored her OBSAPR four-under-Par Group 3 status in her two starts irrespective of her 24.17 foot SL, which was more than half-foot longer than average, but she was scratched (SCR) from the sale after the breeze. While Shanghai Bonnie looks logical, we think the key here should be Win the Shake. Good luck!