BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, January 16th by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
Our Pick last week appeared to be given too much to do, wandering along in the slop uncomfortably before settling down to finish fourth. However, there were four other BreezeFigs maidens on that card who won, as well as a stakes winner at Santa Anita, so it wasn’t a total loss. Overall, there were ten BreezeFigs maidens who came home on top during the week: Three at Aqueduct (including two exactas), one at Golden Gate, three at Gulfstream, two at Tampa and one at Turf Paradise. Today’s card has a number of first-time starters with good chances to capture their debuts, but we have selected the toughest race on the card, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick: Santa Anita, 5th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
There is a genuine first-time morning line favorite here in Lily, who was not in a 2-year-old sale but whose biomechanics caught our eye as a yearling and she is going to be the one the five BreezeFigs fillies will have to beat. But this is horse racing and she is on the outside, and two of the three BreezeFigs debutantes have a chance to run her off her feet. Both She’sashocker and Always Believe come out of the contentious OBSAPR sale where the former posted a nine-over-Par Group 2 profile with a stunning 26.85 foot stride length (SL), more than four feet longer than average for fillies that day at one eighth. That’s right, but she is by First Dude, who is big and so is she, so that has to be factored in here. Always Believe posted a more conventional five-over-Par Group 1 profile on the next day at the same distance, and her 24.68 foot SL was 1.36 feet longer than average. The other firster, Dancing Ava, had a very mixed profile at OBSMAR with a five-under-Par Group 3 profile and a 24.69 foot SL, almost a foot longer than average for fillies that day at a furlong. She looks too have to settle here, and may sucker up for a piece. Of the two who have started, Instant Drama looks to better than Ok Doll. The former posted an even-Par Group 1 profile at OBSAPR with a 23.72 foot SL, a half-foot longer than average for fillies that day at one eighth, and she showed promise in her debut. Ok Doll breezed the same day as She’sashocker and posted a three-under-Par Group 4 record with a 22.54 foot SL, a quarter foot shorter than average. Always Believe and She’sashocker are both 12-to-1 in the morning line, and they look like solid gimmick plays with the likely favorite. Instant Drama is also intriguing if you want to throw some more money around. Good luck!