BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, Jan. 7, 2017 by Bob Fierro & Jay Kilgore
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLEThey’re right about rain in California—it pours. Thus is probably the logical reason our Pick last week was washed down the tubes as Dre Dan floundered away—but we were saved by one of the other well-qualified BreezeFigs runners as Sheer Fantasy popped over at $7.60. The bridge of BreezeFigs maiden winners from 2016 to 2017 was strong with 16 others getting their pictures taken: Aqueduct (a BreezeFigs exacta), Fair Grounds (four, including one exacta), Golden Gate, Gulfstream (two, including an exacta), Laurel (three), Santa Anita (three others, including two exactas) and Tampa Bay (two). Saturday's card will be affected by the weather in several places, but for our Pick we are betting they get the card in at Aqueduct, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick:
Aqueduct, 9th Race, Maiden Special Weight (New York-Breds), 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt)
We are not dancing on the ceiling over this race which features one colt from each of our BreezeFigs Groups in roughly the way they should finish—with a caveat. That’s because the Group 1 colt, Digitaldestruction (timely name, eh?) is the first-timer here and he showed a very nice four-over-Par profile at OBSAPR with a 24.79 foot stride length (SL), four-fifths of a foot longer than average for colts that day at a furlong. However, our Pick from December 10, Blue Belt, is back, and now that he’s based in New York he is probably going to justify his morning line favoritism based on his debut and his even-Par Group 2 profile at a quarter mile at OBSAPR where his 24.54 foot SL was just above average. Nutzforboltz was a one-under-Par Group 3 number at EASMAY with a 24.07 foot SL, about a quarter foot below average at one furlong that day—but he’s been up the track in each of his starts so far. The Group 4 colt, Formal Start, was 10-under-Par at EAMAY at a furlong but his 25.51 foot SL was a foot-and-a-third longer than average—but he was unsold (RNA) for 19.5k. He probably needs two turns unless the others burn themselves out early. We’re comfortable with keying Digitaldestruction and Blue Belt any which way you want. Good luck!