BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, February 14th by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
Guess our Pick of last week, Sixth Man, needed the race, especially after being set out to contest the pace at a mile—tough to do as a first-time starter, which are the horses we concentrate on in this column. Still among the 17 BreezeFigs maidens who got off the schneid last week, four were first-timers: two at Gulfstream, one each at Parx and Tampa Bay. The tally included four at Aqueduct (including two BreezeFigs exactas); three at Gulfstream and Tampa Bay, two at Santa Anita and Sam Houston, and solos at Delta Downs, Parx and Turfway. Topping it off were the stunning performances by Dortmund and Firing Line in the Grade 3 Robert Lewis at Santa Anita, with the former holding on at the wire, and the two of them over 20 lengths ahead of the third horse. Today’s card may be affected by the weather in the East, so we are shifting to a potentially more hospitable climate with our Pick, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreeeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick:
Oaklawn Park, 8th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Four BreezeFigs maiden in this one, three first-timers, all of which have credentials. Mutation will be favored because he’s the “house horse,” (his owner owns the track), and he might be worth it based on his four-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSMAR where his 23.75 foot stride length was just above average length that day for colts at a furlong. The other three come out of OBSAPR, where Chart Room posted a six-over-Par Group 1 performance which included a 24.58 foot stride length, three-quarters of a foot longer than average for colts at an eighth that day. The other two are not listed in the PPs as coming out of this sale because one (Alabama Slim) was scratched (SCR) after breezing, and the other, On Lake Time, was left unsold (RNA) after a final bid of 27k. They both breezed on the same day and each had even-Par Group 2 profiles with Alabama Slim’s SL of 24.48 far superior to that of On Lake Time (23.04), compared to the 23.62 foot average for colts that day at a furlong. On Lake Time showed little in his debut, so you are left with the other three to consider. All things considered, then, you would have to use Mutation as the key here, but both Chat Room and Alabama Slim should not be ignored. Good luck!