BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, Feb. 25, 2017 by Bob Fierro & Jay Kilgore
If anything positive came out of our Pick last week it could be that when Clear N Convincing comes back, perhaps around two turns, he should be played. Other than that, it was another decent week for BreezeFigs maidens as 15 of them got to the wire first, really from coast-to-coast: Aqueduct, Gulfstream (three), Oaklawn (three, including a BreezeFigs exacta and a BreezeFigs trifecta), Parx, Sam Houston (two), Santa Anita (two), Tampa Bay (two) and Turfway. We are off to Gulfstream Park this weekend for the first 2-year-old sale of the year (FTFMAR) but there is a wild and wooly card Saturday for you to contemplate with a number of really interesting first-timers. We think we found a race that could be the best of the day, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick:
Oaklawn Park, 9th Race, Maiden Special Weight, Six Furlongs (Dirt)
There are five BreezeFigs colts in here, ironically all from OBSAPR (synthetic) or EASMAY (dirt) including two making their debuts and they should be taken seriously. Visionary Tale comes out of EASMAY with an eight-over-Par Group 1 profile that featured a 25.28 foot stride length (SL), which was a foot longer than average for colts that day at a furlong. He’s on the rail at 7-to-2 but he only brought 50k at the sale—watch the board. The next day Live Round breezed the same distance and posted a two-over-Par Group 2 profile with a 23.68 foot SL, which was an eighth of a foot below average. Yes, there was a difference in the track, and he brought 70k, and is listed at 5-to-1. The Red Dude came out of the same sale and breezed the first day chalking up a one-over-Par Group 2 ticket with a 25.53 foot SL—a foot and a quarter longer than average at one eighth, and a quarter foot longer than Visionary Tale the same day. He brought 60k, and was OK to a degree in his lone start, though the chart says he was “sluggish.” As for the OBSAPR horses, Tempo Seeker (who is also entered on Sunday) posted an even-Par Group 2 effort with a 24.91 foot SL, almost a foot longer than average that day. He has shown decent form in two of his starts, both sprints, and might be in the mix here if he runs. That brings up the 3-to-1 favorite Crawford, who came home with a one-over-Par Group 2 profile and a 24.41 foot SL, which was more than three-quarters of a foot longer than average that day—and he was not sold (RNA) for 95k. He woke up big time in his second start (was he gelded before then?) and has the connections to make sure he stays awake here. This is a real betting race with Crawford your logical key, but the other four have shots to clean up some gimmick money and it might be worth watching the board on the firsters to see which way to go—Visionary Tale is our second key in that case. Good luck!