BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, December 3, 2016 by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
Well, the four win/gimmick streak ended but we still wound up with half a loaf rather than a whole one—twice. Our gimmick Pick, It’s Mike’s Turn, got nailed at the wire to complete a $23.60 exacta with the favorite, and our top choice, Aberdeen Island, who was bet heavily down to second choice, ran well to be fourth to get into a $246 superfecta. We will try to do better this week. Meanwhile, the post-holiday schedule saw 16 BreezeFigs maidens win, and the important Swynford Stakes at Woodbine winding up a BreezeFigs exacta ($109) and BreezeFigs trifecta ($229). The maiden winners were all over the place: Aqueduct, Churchill (three), Del Mar, Fair Grounds (three), Gulfstream West (three, including a BreezeFigs trifecta; Laurel (three, including two BreezeFigs exactas); Tampa Bay and Woodbine (a BreezeFigs exacta). Today’s card has some serious competition from first-time starters, but we found a little gem to slip into your thoughts, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick:
Del Mar, 4th Race, Maiden Claiming ($40,000), 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)
We are a bit surprised to see that Into Kings is not only in for a tag in his debut, but also that he’s listed at 12-to-1 in the morning line, given his connections. This colt impressed us at OBSAPR despite a modest one-over-Par Group 2 profile with a 23.64 foot stride length (SL), about a quarter foot below average for colts that day at an eighth. He moved well and looked the part but he’s in here for a tag below his 57k sales price—watch the board. On the other hand, Hard Arch blew the doors off at the same distance at that sale, but on a different day, posting a six-over-Par Group 1 profile with a 25.40 foot SL—almost a foot-and-a-half longer than average that day. He also sold for 57k but stunk out the joint at Gulfstream West in his debut at basically the same level—and was shipped cross-country to try his luck here. Maybe. In his three starts, Run Macho Run has lived up to his three-under-Par Group 3 ticket posted at OBSJUN with a 23.31 foot SL at a quarter mile, more than a half-foot shorter than average that day. Not here, either. We think if you take Into Kings and Hard Arch and slip them into some gimmicks, you might get lucky—and Into Kings might be worth a straight shot as well. Good luck!