BreezeFigs Quick-Pix, for Saturday, December 15, 2018 by Bob Fierro & Jay Kilgore
What we thought would happen last week didn’t because our top Pick Sunflower Girl stopped after looking very contentious, but our saver Surprise Again was right there with her and kept going to rack up the win at a generous $14.60. (Tab Sunflower Girl back, she looked short). Surprise Again was one of 19 BreezeFigs maidens who won last week including six first timers, five of which were playable on the figs and stride lengths (SL). The 18 other winners besides Surprise Again came at Aqueduct (three), Fair Grounds (two, including a BreezeFigs exacta), Golden Gate, Gulfstream (five), Laurel, Los Alamitos (two), Parx (three) and Woodbine. Today’s card has a plethora of opportunities including one which looks like it might be a key race, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick:
Gulfstream Park, 7th Race, Maiden Special Weight,, One Mile
Three BreezeFigs first timers in here, all out of OBSAPR, one of which, French Revolution, is second choice in the morning line to third-time starter Gran Causeway. This might be a key race because it’s at a mile and these are fairly nice horses. French Revolution had a three-over-Par Group 2 effort with a 26.12 foot stride length (SL), which was more than a foot and a quarter longer than colts that day at a quarter mile. But he didn’t sell (RNA) at 97k, which was a good deal below his yearling price of 170k, so something may have been amiss—but he has the right trainer. Supervillain came out of the same sale on the same day at the same distance and racked up a six over Par Group 1 profile with a 25.62 foot SL, which was more than three quarters of a foot longer than average—and the barn is hot. Rack Gin breezed on a different day and put up a four-over-Par Group 2 effort at a furlong with a 25.67 foot SL, more than a foot and three quarters longer than average Gran Causeway, on the other hand, breezed at OBSMAR where his profile was not that good—a three-under-Par Group 3 ticket with a 24.43 foot SL, just above average at an eighth that day. He was second in his debut but didn’t close much ground and we think he’s no better than a gimmick play here, along with Rack Gin. We really like Supervillain, but French Revolution could be ready to go as well so we’d key them both. Good luck!