BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, August 27th, 2016 by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
We hardly expected our top 2-year-old Pick last week, Seven Forty Seven, to be sent off as the favorite, so we cringed as he and all the other BreezeFigs horses in the race except one threw in desultory efforts. The one that didn’t, Favorable Outcome, lived up to his name and BreezeFigs profile which we should have taken more seriously considering he paid only $9.90. Of course, if you had him, congrats. On the other hand, there were seven other winners on that 2-year-old card, including a trifecta at Gulfstream and a superfecta at Monmouth, so it was hardly a total loss. There were 15 BreezeFigs 2-year-olds who broke their maidens during the week, so things are really exploding. They came at Del Mar, Ellis (three), Golden Gate, Gulfstream (four), Indiana, Laurel, Monmouth, Presque Isle and Saratoga (two). Among the 3-year-olds, the lone first-timer on the card last week was our Pick Head for the Hills, and she did not live up to her name but headed for the wire faster than the others in her race to pay a generous $10.60. Remember, the 3-year-old cards will disappear after Labor Day. Once again there’s a ton of horses on the 2-year-old card Saturday with a very contentious Pick, and just one lone firster on the 3-year-old card—which we like, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pix:
2-Year-Olds:
Del Mar, 9th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)
There are five BreezeFigs fillies in this one, maidens, two of which, Mopotism and Go On Mary, are on the AE list. If Mopotism gets in, she is our choice (she’s been entered back on the 28th so if she does not run today, tab her for that one). She posted a one-over-Par Group 2 profile at FTFMAR with a 25,36 foot stride length (SL), which was almost a foot and a half longer than average for fillies at one eighth. Go On Mary, on the other hand, had a four-under-Par Group 3 profile at OBSAPR with a 22.40 foot SL—more than a foot and a half shorter than average for fillies that day at a quarter mile. Among those in the body of the race, Americana will be bet off the boards for several reasons other than he nine-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSMAR where her 24.53 foot SL was a half-foot longer than average for fillies that day at one furlong. (The other reasons include her sire Tapit, and the fact that she comes from the connections of Songbird). Princess Nicole did well in two breezes: First at BARMAR she posted an even-Par Group 1 profile at a quarter mile with a 24.23 foot SL—she was the only filly to breeze that distance. She was not sold (RNA) for a mere 20k, and came back to post a two-over-Par Group 2 ticket at OBSMAR with a 23.09 foot SL—which was more than three-quarters of a foot shorter than average at one eighth that day. She is a total mystery because, once again, she was not sold, this time for 30—and her first start gave hints why as she was well beaten. Soul Singer put up an OK show at OBSMAR with a one-over-Par Group 1 profile that featured a 24.00 foot SL, just a fraction longer than average for fillies that day at one eighth. Thus, we can narrow this one down to Americana, Soul Singer and if she gets in Mopotism—with the latter being the key.
3-Year-Olds:
Ellis Park, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
She’s stuck on the rail and is 10-to-1 in the morning line but we think Heavenly Daze could be a savvy key here. She came out of OBSAPR last year with a four-over-Par Group 2 profile which featured a 24.11 foot SL, more than a foot longer than average for fillies that day at a furlong. She has been working steadily and may be this good. Good luck!